Some neophytes in the study of Adam Smith have made the wonderful discovery that the great increase of the Import trade at Chinkiang in 1872, was wholly due to the grain export. This, they say, is whence came the "rush of wealth" of "purchasing power" that produced the great demand for foreign goods at Chinkiang in 1871 and 1872. If this be true, why did not this great "rush of wealth® and purehasi power" come to Kinkinng which, every year since 1866, has had three times the value of exports that Chinkiang had in 1872, but, in fact, took only one-third as much foreign goods. The rate of purchasing power at Kiukiang seems to have been only as one to nine of what it Chinkiang, We can hardly understand this great difference in the purchasing power of the two ports; but we suppose it is all accounted for on the "abnormal wave" theory which, it is id, made the purchasing power at Chinkiang; and of course it must have been mine times greater than at Kiukiang. If we were only allowed to extend this enormous ratio of increase of purchasing power to native pro-duets coming into Chinkiang from the interior, it would easily account for all the increase, barter trade included. But we bide our time until we have further developments of this new theory of natural selection in Commerce. Let us see what the facts are about the grain export. During the year 1872, the expert of grain from Chinkiang in foreign vessels, was 1,867,234 piculs. The. reason why so much notice was taken of this grain export in 1872, was simply because it was all taken by foreign vessels, not that the export was so much larger than usual, Kiangsu and the adjoining provinces west, have been called the granary of China,"
the amount raised each year is largely in excess of the wants of the population. Rice and other grains are largely exported every year, mostly in native boats; and it is-n fact that to-day, at Chinkiang, there ago and" other Doats, each of a capacity 4,000'piculs, all loading with grain, As so much has been said of the grain export from Chinkiang in 1872, as the cause of the great increase of trade that year, it is worth while to see what the grain export is in 1873, as far as we may be able todo so, and note the quantity as compared with last year, It is always somewhat difficult to get exact data from purely Chinese sources, and as the exports this year are nearly all in Chinese bottoms, the exports come through the native Custom House to thelvcal Board of Trade. From what data are furnished, copied from these records, the following are the st tics for 1873, and are believed to be rather under than' in excess of the proper amount, From January Ist to November 19th 1873, the end of the Chinese ninth month, the amount of grain exported from Chin-on both sides of the river, in native and foreign vessels, amounts to two Inndred and twenty-five tan. The wan being ten thousand piculs, this would be at the rate of two hundred and twenty-five thousand piculs a month, or two million two hundred aiid fifty thousand Chink piculs for ten mont ink exceeds the Hai-kwan picul from thirty-six to forly-one catties; hence making this addition at_ thirty-six' catties, the total amount will be 3,035,000" Hai-k piculs for only ten Chinese months; and it is well known that the remaining portion of the year shows the largest shipments on account of the full harvest just_ coming. Estimating the rest of this year from November 20th to December S1st at the sume rate, we shall have additional 460,000 Ha Kwan piculs, which odded to the f amount makes a total of 3,495,000 Hai-Kwan piculs as the export of grain from Chinkinng in 1873, against 1,867,234 piculs in 1872as reported by the Customs (Foreign. If we allow twenty-five per cent. addi ti fair estimate for exports in native b in 1872, the total export would be 2,334,042 piculs, showing an estimated i crease in 1873 of 1,160,958 piculs or a gai of 50 per cent. over 1872.—Or if wegostill further, and allow that ative boats took half as much as foreign vessels in 1872, which is all that has ever been claimed, then we have a total amount of 2,900,851 piculs exported in 1872, against 3,495,000 piculs in 1873, still an inerense of 304,149 piculs, and a gain of 17 per cent. in 1873 over 1872. Taking these figures into considera ion, the fallacy of the grain export theory for 1872 is easily seen, and the great abner mal ware of 1872" seems to have been no wave at all; for the export of 1873 greatly exceeds that of 1872. To argue normally upon this ' abnormal ware" theory, the grain export in 1873 being ternal transit trade at Chinkiang ought to be in excess of 1872 also. Our theorists seem to have entirely forgotten that Chinese export grain in their own vessels, a very important item which has a most telling effect upon the "gigantic fluctuations" of this "abnormal wave," as it is to be presumed that a picul of rice is a picul, whether shipped in a sampan a lorcha or an. English steamer. The rate of freights the material question, and this is in favour of 1873. The prices of grain of course vary. In 1872 the price of rice was higher and wheat cheaper than this year, butcomparin, the two years and the quantities of en grain, there is little difference if any, and this will be more than counter-balanced by the increased quantity exported in 1873.
There is another fallacy of the grain export theorists, that might as well be mened, though itis of no very great importance, In accounting for the increase of Imports in 1872, it hus been often stated that the increased purchasing power was due to the grain exports, entirely, as showing the exchange of this grain for imports. As this almost touches upon the barter question, it may be well to state that the grain exported in 1872 came from near Chinkiang, and points south of the river, where few piece. goods were received, while the piece goods were nearly all sent north of the river towards Tsing-kiangan, a region from which there is no grain export to Chinkiang. These facts may make no difference with those who take the export view of the question, but they have " very important bearing upon trade, and the interchange of commodities between producing and consuming dietriets, Having shown that the increased trade at Chinkiang in 1872 and former years could not have been entirely owing to the grain export; in fact showing that, with the same or larger grain export, the trade has fallen off some 35 per cent, in 1873, it may be well to enquire whether the issue of transit passes for goods coming outward had anything to do with the trade. Let it be admitted at the outset, that the amount of native goods until 1872 was not so but they made quite an item on the trade, In 1872 the value of these goods, if properly catimated, although pat were issued during only a little more than five months of the year, would amount to nearly a million taels, a value of trade added to Chinkiang which no other distributing port had, Now it is not to be supposed that this is simply to be set against one million taels value of foreign goods imported during the year. It has a greater significance, 'The' primary effec f the issue of transit passes was to morea: the value of the native produce in the district of its production, and secondly to decrease its value in the district of consumption; or to bring the producer and consumer nearer together, thereby benefitting and enriching both' at the same time, Not only was this done in regard to native produce, but it appli equally us well to foreign' goods, bringing the foreign producer and native consumer nearer together, the foreign merchant getting better prices, and the native consumer cheaper goods. Up to 1872, the amount of this trade in native produce had increased steadily, but during 1872 there was u very large increase in the number of passes issued and in the number of places from which the goods came. The great difference between the enormous exactions at the barrier stations, and the small amount of the transit dues, at once. raised the value of native produce a large per centage in all those districts having intercourse with Chinkiang; and this extended into Shantung, Shansi and Honan on the north, and nearly to Kiukiang the West. This trade being new, and a new market opening so exten sively at Chinkiang, would at once increase the value of all those articles of
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.