The Archive · 1884

THE SITUATION

For some days pst a feeling of con= fidence and relief has been generally experienced in Shanghai to which the commanity have for a long time past been strangers. The cessation of hostilities upon the coast, the growing impression that the French are about to rest upon their oars in Formosa, the victories achieved by them in Tou-quin, and the gradual growth of a conviction that the contemplated operations in the north have been for the time being, at least, abandoned, have all contributed to this more encouraging state of affairs. In addition to these facta we have received news from time to time of the progress of nogotiatio \in Tientsin, which are stated to be of a distinctly pacific tendency; and this has confirmed the hopes to which the quieter altitude of the French fleet has given rise, That such favourable prog. nosticatious may be speedily and permanently realised none can wish more cordially than ourselves. At the same time it may not be out of place to utter word of warning against too sanguine expectations, hata certain standing-ground has been arrived at on which both parties can approach within measurable distance of each other is unquestionably a great step gained; but it is only a step, and the obstacles in the way of Giunl settlement are still con siderable. Itis well to remember that by the payment of a trifling sum of money, as indemnity, the Chinese could have come to terms with Frante months ago. This, Lowever, they refused to do, as the concession of anything in the shape ofan indemnity would in itself be an ace kuowledgment that they were in the wrong, An indemnity is simply a compensation for injuries received, audwbether such compensation takes the form of money or not it atill remains an indemnity and therefore an acknowledgment of wrongdoing. Taking, then, the reported change in the Erench attitude precisely as it has reached us, it ie diffoult to build any very soaring hopes upon it as it stands ab present. Three months ago, peace was believed to be within the reach of China for is, 500,000, and she refused to have it ab the price. Since then the French have destroyed a large number of forts and gunboate, and occupied the principal ports in the island of Formosa; then, having done damage to this amount, they offer peace in return for the absolute surrender to them of Formosa itself, and the monopoly of railway-building in China for half a century, It is like the old story of the Roman emperor, the sibyl, and the books. The terms of which our Peking Correspondent tells us are a thousandfold severer, from a business standpoint, than those that were rejected Inst July. It is vain and idle to argue that the giving of money would involve a confession of wrongdoing, while the cession of territory does not. Both involve it; else, why should any cession be made at all That the Chinese, therefore, should have refused to pay an insignificant amount, and are uow about to part light-heartedly with one of their finest possessions, we cannot and we do not believe, The maritime revenue of For. mosa is comparatively insignificant say, about half-a-million taels. But the island itself is n property of high value, politically, to China, and has cost her, in times past, much both in blood and money. The constant presence of an armed force so near to her own coasts, and that a French force, would be a perpetual wound in her side, The cession of territory in any case, as we have ahead pointed out on several oconsions, is a grave crime on the part of Ministers of State while the Emperor islet a child, It amounts, in Chinese eyes, to a culpable and indeed unpardonable breach of avery snored trust, and the names of such statesmen as were parties to it would go down to posterity as those of traitors to the Throne. This is no question of any shadowy suzerainty-claims. Formosa is as much a part of China as the Isle of Man is of England; and if it passes into the possession of France it will be at avery heavy cost to some one. The Chinese are not likely to sign away a part of the Emperor's inheritance without a bitter struggle; and that there is a struggle to come yet, struggle in which the French fleet now on its way out to China will take part, we regard as almost inevitable, Nor, we believe, could any such monopoly as that for fifty years' railway~ building become a fact without the representatives of other Powers being at least consulted; and it tionable, in our view, whether so exorbitant a demand would be agreed to by the Chinese. The power which such a footing in the country would give to France would be too great. It would establish an imperium in imperio, and give to Franco @ position unwarranted by her commercial interests and utterly out of proportion to the number of French citizens in Chinn, That such a proposal has been made by Franco is possible enough. The Government of the Republic asked £10,000,000 for the affair at Langson, but the demand was unsuccessful, A subsequent indication that the eightieth part of that sum might be accepted fared no better and it is in the highest degree unlikely thas China will now easily accede to proposals, one of which would deprive her of a fine territory and force her to commit what is regarded by tradition as a grave political crime, and the other involve the sacrifice of her Imperial rights inland, avd that at the expense, in many ways, of other nations, Such are the considerations, be they well founded or flimsy, on which we base our conviction that peace is not quite so near as many would have us believe. here have been too many cries of Peace, pesos,' when there was no peace, during the last twelve months, The schemes of France, of whatever scope or magnitude they may he, are not to be achieved so suddenly; and even though we hear, as we may hear, in a fow days, news of an encouraging untrue, it will be wise to receive it cautiously, and not jump to the conclu. ion that a hard bargain driven at Tientsin necessarily involves a "pers manent and stable pact, THE INTERESTS OF GERMANY, AMERICA, AND ENGLAND, Ir appears that some of the French newspapers have keenly resented the criticisms on the operations on the Min by s-portion of the American press. The American people have come in for a share of the vity just os England and everything English had been fiercely abused for some ti before, in every term that political anger could supply to the journalists of Paria, Bat as the English press and people had proved perfectly indifferent, one other object on which raucous could vent itself became desirable, This object was supplied when American papers took the same view of what lad been dono near the Foochow Arsenal as their English confreres, influenced by the sensational telegrams of Mr. A. B. Colquhoun, Hyven the best news papers in Paris do not trouble theme selves much to provide curly iutelligence for their readers; news oupies quite a secondary place in their columns, and apparently it has taken the editors of Parisian newspapers about a fortnight to learn the verdict which the press of Now York and other American cities had passed upon the bombardment of Foochow. The comments of their transatlantic critics must have come opportauely to the conductors of the French press, for after w fortnight of active atuse of England even the vocabulary of vilify. cation of Parisian writers must have been exhausted, But, if the telegrams which we published two dayengogivoany thing like an accurate idea of the tone of the French newspapers, the journal. lists of America have revived the drooping energies and resharpened the pens of their brethren in Paris, The Amorican newspapers can tuke very godd care of themselves, and may be trusted to give quite as good us they got from most quarters in Europe, It is also possible that they may be more plain. spoken in what they have to say about French policy than the English press ins been, America is far from those entangling interests, such as Egyptian affairs, which undoubtedly do influence the conduct of the English nation when such questions crop up as this concern. ing China and France. the American newspapers can therefore say things of European policy which nations that are neighbours would think it politic to suppress, or to present to thei public in a modified form. They are also, perhaps, able to forma clearer judg-

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