24th June. "Te wind is blowing from the quarter of peace in old Europe," says the Courrier d' Haiphong, "at least that is what French and foreign newspapers alike have been telling us for some weeks, and we would gladly believe them. But it is not the less true that one day or other a spark will be struck which will fire the powder, and one long trail of blood will stretch from the Pyrenees to the steppes of Russia." Count Moltke, as we said yesterday, is of much the same opinion. Every Buropean government longs to keep the peace, and fears that it cannot be kept; and Count Moltke is even more disquieting, because he holds that the war that has hung over Europe, like the sword of Damocles, for the last ten years, will not be an affair of weeks and months, but probably of yours:-—"It may be a Seven Years' War, it may be a Thirty Years' War." Even if we allow something for the necessity that Count Moltke is under to paint the future as blackly as possible, in order to reconcile the German people to the demands made on them by the War Office, there is yet enough reason left for disquietude. Every nation of Europe, then, is straining to keep its position as a first-class military power. 'I'o do this it is not only indispensable to have a large army, well-trained soldiers, a formidable artillery; there are other elements which play a leading part and take an important place in the gearing of the great military machine. "From the first day of general or partial mobilisation "—we areagainquoting the Courrier—"afeverish energy begins to reign onthe railways, inthe ports and arsenals; the mechanical activity is increased tenfold. But this mechanical activity, to arrive at results, demands one indispensable agent—coal." The Headquarter staffs of all the armies are, accordingly, devoting themselves to the question of the provision of coal, and in France the War Department has decided on the accumulation of stocks that will be sufficient for all eventualities, and is seriously considering whether, in the event of war being declared, it would not be advisable to exclude from the general mobilisation the men employed in the coal mines. The "fuel" of strife is a common metaphor; now it appears that fuel is one of the most necessary ingredients in the preparations for war.
The Courrier then passes from the general to the particular question: where would the French squadron in the Far East get its coal in case of war? For coal is contraband of war, and hitherto France has depended on England for the necessary supplies. We might remind our contemporary that in the Franco-Chinese war coal was also contraband, and the English ports in the Far East as well as those of Japan were closed to the French as far as coal was concerned, and yet the French ships were supplied, and always will be, if they are ready to pay enough. There would obviously be more difficulty, however, if France and England were on bad terms. he quantity required by the French is estimated at nearly a million tons for the naval squadron, and over two million tons for the merchant vessels that would be mobilised and the question is, where to find these three million tons. Not in France, because even in time of peace she has to rely on England, Germany, or Belgium for the third of what she consumes, and it would be impossible for her to send supplies out to the Far East for her ships. Nor could the French ironclads rely on Obock or Saigon, where the stocks are very small and easily exhausted. But Tongking remains, and the colony whose acquisition has driven the ablest politician in France, Jules Ferry, into private life, will yet vindicate his sagacity by coming to the assistance of the mother country in the event of a war. Hongay and Tourane will supply all the coal that the French ships, government or private, will need in peace as well as in war.
Great Britain has the advantage of having the most complete chain of coaling stations all round the world and a history of them, showing which were acquired designedly and which accidentally, would have much interest. It is to be hoped that we shall not be engaged in a war with a maritime power Ail we have securely fortified these stations, for it is obvious that they will be among the first points of attack. We noticed the other day that General von Caprivi had declared to the Reichstag that Germany must have a chain of coaling stations, and he was no doubt referring to this need when he spoke of the necessity of*a closer alliance with a first-rate naval power. If Germany is to be allowed to use our coaling stations when she is at war, the power with which she was at war would probably consider that use a casus belli against us, so that this would involve an actual alliance with Germany, for which the British people is not prepared. It is believed by many people that there is an understanding as to naval action between England, Germany, and Italy, but whatever the preferences of individuals, the English nation as a whole has no wish to take either side should the struggle begin again between France and Germany. The latter power will have to provide her own coaling stations, and when they are provided, she will not be able to keep them—in case of war—without a very much stronger navy than she has at present. She may indeed rely on the very fast merchant steamers she has been building at home and abroad lately to supply her ships with coal at sea: but the expected war will be deferred for some time, if its outbreak is to wait until Germany's chain of coaling stations is complete. Everything that does defer the outbreak is good, for if the postponement is continued, it, may never take place at all. Meanwhile we heartily congratulate our neighbours in Tongking on the riches—in coal—which their colony contains, and trust that their most sanguine hopes will be fully realised.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.