Tur alleged secret treaty between China and Russia, the terms of which we gave to the world on the 3rd of March, has been officially repudiated more than once, as we knew it would be, but for all that, it has attracted a great deal of attention on the Continent. The Vossische Zeitung printed a German translation of it, on which the Vienna correspondent of the Standard comments as follows The Russo-Chinese Treaty, as reproduced in Berlin from a Shanghai paper, is stated in gard there as an invention, The so-called telegrams from the German capital to be rety is, at all eventa, full of inconsistencies and geographical errors, nor does it employ the guage usually to be found in Treaties, even with Oriental nations, least of all in Treaties such as China is wont to make. To the Shanghai paper drew from o Japanese an experienced eye it would appear that source, an that Japanese fears and suspicions wore formulated and given out as the supposed text of the secret Treaty between China and Russia. The, supposed Treaty is, at any rate, considered to embody what Russia desires, and what China has either granted or will be forced to grant in time, Taken in this sense, the compact, whether already concluded or stil tobe nego: tinted, is regarded in serious political circles in Vienna preparing the way for the annexation of half China, But whether China i be the prey of Russia alone ig a question which the Great Powers of Europe will, doubtless, " have something to say. The doubt whether any Treaty oF draft Treaty of this sort. is really in existence is at once dispelled, when we consider the course of Russisn policy since the present Czar ascended the throne, and since Prince Lobanoff was uppointed his first adviser.
russia is nothing if not cautious, and merely from a professional point of view Prince Lobanoff is admired for the way in which he has secured his rear by holding the Russian shield over the Sultan, as, for example, by effecting @ reconciliation with Bulgaria, by refusing to encourage any ventures in Macedonia, and many other ways, before venturing on the great issue in the Far' Fast, for whic efreumstances allow Russia herself to choose the time, The more those who know Russian nycans are able to observe what is going on in the Balkan States and Turkey, the more purely are they convinced of the existence of some Treaty like that which was published in March in Shanghai, and the stand lately taken by Russis on the Egyptian Question to confirm the daily impressions. England is to be occupied in Africa, the more thoroughly the better, and the Triple Alliance was to be crippled by the weakest link in its chain being broken through assistance given by Russia and France to the Abyssinian, and, if all is duly prepared, definite steps will be taken in China without waiting for the completion of the Siberian railways, since Japan is not to be given time to perfect her armaments, The whole is regarded as a duel between Russis and England, or between Prince Lobs-off and Salisbury. Indeed, all. the events and incidents of the last twelve months have throughout been considered in this light in Vienna, as I have more than once mentioned in my telegrams. The duel is not yet over, and confidence is placed in Lord Salisbury that he will know how to parry any blow aimed at him, Alresdy at this early stage it is pointed out here that the swallowing of an Empire like Chins by one European Power, or by two, since France seems to be promised a slice, cannot be a question left to the two Powers, If this view, which is now held in Vienna and is freely expressed by the principal news-san Bo made to proval up Austr'
rman Ally, that is to say, if The North - China Herald and Supreme Court & Consular Gazette (1870-1941); Jun 5, 1896; can be made to conceive the danger for her own trade and for that of all Europe, the danger for the equilibrium in Euro; by Russia and France being so enormously dised and having at. their disposal immense resources of an Empire like China, there can be no question of Germany entering again into the Asiatic Triple Alliance, and when the hour has arrived Japen and England will not stand alone. The idea is even propounded that the great Chinese question may in course of time offer the long Sought-for basis for e more solid connection between England and the Triple Alliance, as 2 whole, on the principle. of give and take, because up to the present the Central Euro-Fevura to am essentially Colonial Power like has nothing valuable to give England. This idea, however, events may be left to develop. a pity that the correspondent did not specify the inconsistencies and phical errors to which he refers, and we do not think that there is anything in the Innguage to discredit it, to those who are familiar with the tone of Oriental documents. tis, of course, not the language in which a Western diplomatist would draft. a similar document. What is very certain is, that it did not come from a Japanese source. But, after all, these criticisms are immaterial; what is material is, that serious li tical circles in Vienna see that it emies what Russia desires, and what China has granted or will be forced to grant in time. And if our Foreign Office accepts and Paris has for its object to induce England The action of the Cabinets of St. Petersbur,
to consent, if not to an early evacuation, at Feast to of engagement ting a date for the withdrawal of the British troops. It is believed here that England is aiming at cor verting the Nile: evenly Sato an actus British Colony, and she must be stopped before facts are accomplished which it would be difficult interests not only of Russia and France, but to deal with, as her plans run counter to the of all the European Powers who do not desire to forego the fullest guarantee for 6 free passage through the Canal for men-of-war and merchant vessels, The Economist's Money Market note is a very brief one this week There is practically no change in the eon-Aitions or prospects of the money market since we last wrote, Loanable funds are so abundant, that the requirements of the Stock Exchange for the Settlement and other calls were easily met, and the discount rate for three months' bills stands where it did, at 9, per cent, Lenders are building some hopes on a curtailment of supplies from the further payments on account of the Chinese loan, but as we pointed out last week, these will be offset by disbursements from the indemnity funds already standing at the credit of the Japanese Government, so that there is really no prospect of any approaching change in market conditions, The Economist's first leading article is on the Budget, in which it is shown that the revenue last year amountedto£101,974,000, or £5,812,000 more than the estimate, and the view that the treaty is "a clumsy £7
7,290,000 more than in 1894-95. "The forgery," so much the worse for our Forei revenue for 1896-97 is estimated ut all treaty is, that if only one-tenth of Office. The ce od Globe £101,755,000, and the expenditure at erues there can be to doubt what-£100,047,000. The second article deals with "The Proposed Alterations in the ever that the Far Eastern question is about Scheme of Taxation," and it is noted that to assume a far graver aspect than it has the agricultural interest is to be relieved of ever had hitherto. Until, however, we a large portion of its local burdens at the receive authoritative confirmation of the expense of the taxpayers, It is really news published to-day, it will hardly be case of the spoils to the victors, The necessary to analyse the absolutely preagricultural interest and the clergy worked pesterous agreements which sre announced hand to get Lord Salisbury a big majority, as having been made between the two and in return Lord Salisbury's Government: Powers. There can be no doubt what-is' taking measures for their relief, The ever now, though, that a secret treaty conclusion of the Economist's article is actually exists between Russia and China, Very interesting details were given by Sir and has probably existed for some con-Michsel Hicks-Beach as to the sources whence siderable time past. Last October, when the receipts for the death duties wore derived we made the announcement of the existence last year, These, however, lic out of the of the treaty, the idea was scouted by most scope of this article, and must be left for of our contemporaries, and received a future consideration. There is, however, an categorical denial from the For Office eloquent fact which is worth noting in con. and the Russian Legation. Now, however, nection with a Budget of which the cardinal there is no attempt whatever to refute feature is the allocation of nearly the whole the statement, and hardly a day passes of a fairly lus to the reduction of without news or comments bearing on burdens that is, that very little advantage was taken of the' privilege of the treaty being published. We have too great a faith in the foreign policy Bammenting upon that, Sir Michsol Hick: ying the duty upon realty in instalments, of Lord Salisbury to believe that he is Beach very frankly said:—"Many of unmindful of the enormous issues at stake thought—I confess I thought—that this estate at present in the Far East. Until the duty would be a heavy burden upon realty, and that owners of realty would have con: provocation. Bat ae directly the festivities Czar's coronation is over ie is Rane that Russia will do anything in the shape of open siderable difficulty in raising mon even under the system of payment in instalments, are finished, it is more than probable that It is remarkable they should have been able she will boldly show her hand, and that we to pay the duty to so large an extent [about shall be confronted with a problem which seven-eighths of the total] in a lump sum." our statesmen will have far more difficulty The into 3, that landowners ference from this in solving smoothly than any presented to and other owners of real estate are very far from being in that desperately impoverished them for some time past. We are ready condition which the opponents of Sir William to afford Russia facilities for the attainment Harcourt's great mesure represented. And of her legitimate ambition in the Far East, thatis an additional reason why any proposals s0 long as we receive a proper quid pro to give them relief at the expense of the goncquo for our sequiescence. But the exral body of taxpayers should be scrutinized travagant proposals laid down in the reputed with the utmost care. treaty will require a very considerable The next article deals with "The Re-amount of moderation before they are newal of the Triple Alliance," and the acceptable to this country."
We learn that the St. Petersburg cor-secures three grest results: (1) peace in Economist shows that the Triple Alliance
respondent of the Politische Correspon-Europe; (2) the prevention of the formadenz announces that Fran moe and a tion of other and perhaps less purely defensive alliances; (9) 8 check on the German pen us to give elect at length to the In-repose to get us out of Egypt by calling Emperor, It is quite useless to conceal ternational Convention of 1 whereby a the fact that his active and ambitious mind free passage for vessels of all nations the peace of the world, or to ques-through the Suez Canal is guaranteed. tion thet, if unrestrained, he will sooner or This clause, it is suggested, is rendered later do something which will drag either illusory by the British occupation of Egypt. this country, or America, or possibly all The correspondent adds Europe, into war. The Alliance furnishes
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.