is " subject which requires the insight of a star as well as the foresight of a Promethous. A careful estimate of the political and economical future of North China would be the first step in the problem. Will Chinwangtao become in reality 4 Treaty Port? Will the coal which un doubtedly exists in illimitable bulk in the hinterland be developed? Will Chihli become Russian? Will the wealthy Chinese take to the foreign custom of fre-quanting marine Sanatoria? Given replies to these questions our prognostic might be simple and precise. We may safely postulate that the three last-men: tioned contingencies will not occur within the next ten years; omitting them the question is indefinitely simplified. As far as Tientsin, Peking, and the Mission and Manufacturing centres of North China are concerned, it may be granted that two-thirds of those who intend to. patronise Peitaiho have already acquired land there. The sites unappropriated are enough for ten times the present visitors, to be remembered that all' the best positions near the sea have been secured. When the Railway is completed to New chwang (1900 or 1901), there may be small accession of members from syetous litle community Manchurian mission field behind it; but is not to be forgotten that the good folks Will be nearer to Talienwan, charm; distance always counts in these things. We leave these only to look to Shanghai as the only possible source of a great influx of visitors and patrons, As long as the difficulties and cost. of transit areas great as they are now, we believe that but few families will come from Shanghai. The present travelling facilities to Japan and Chefoo are so great, and the fature ones to V fTatlenwan likely that they will for a long time imp: Peitaiho's chance in the selective favour of Shanghai, although it may have far the stronger claim on the Valetudinarian. Even the likely contingency of. the medical faculty wishing to prescribe Peitaiho, the tigua to an invalid of getting there must in most cases decide the doctors in favour of the more accessible places, notwith. standing the demerits of the south wind, ud native smells.
We believe that, under the present con. ditions of access, not more than a baker's dozen of Shanghai families will come to Peitaiho every year. Only those from whom the novelty of Japan has worn off or to whom its damp heat is a nuisance, or those who find Chefoo objectionable from causes already hinted at; or those who can afford to come en famille for a long time (two or three months); and those whom the doctors imperatively send, will think of it; we do not anticipate that these will ever much exceed a score. We now definitely know that Peitaiho is to be included within the limits of Chinwangtao. The consequences of this will be (1) some sort of foreign Municipal control, (2) right to hold Innd, and (3) some slight enhancement in land values. If Chinwangtao becomes a seaport giving access to ocean steamers of deep draft all through the year, and if it can develop an export coal" trade then the influence on the fortunes of Peitaiho will be incaleulable. This future is confidently predicted for Chinwangt the two "or three foreigners who are behind the Chinese in urging the development see nothing coulewr de rose. They talk of it being the bases of the Railways for half jo continent, a great manufacturing centre as well as a rival of Shanghai as an emporium; in brief, the Bombay of the Far East. Contradiction is sometimes as silly as prediction, 50 we shall not indulge in it, We shall but state that we see no ground for either optimistic or pessimistic view. Trade is wonderfully conservative and is with great ditticulty divided into new channels when once established. All the interests vested in Tientsin, the Peiho, and Tangku will strenuously oppose Chinwangtao; these interests are powerful and will die hurd, if death be a possible contingency. 'The promoters of the new place have made the tactical error of making it too close an affair. 'The whole block of land is in the hands of one syndicate, that syndicate is practically a.* one-horsed shay' and is identical with the monopoly,' which has already secured control of the northern coil supply and which is bidding high to get the railways. Folks are not going to fight hard for a scheme which will issue in a Celestial Rockefeller. We at present see no grounds whatever for the belief that, if Chinwangtao becomes an engineering sue it will, therefore, be a surpassingly hritliant commercial success; still if it only becomes a place of call for steamers, it will have " great influence in Peitaiho as all the difficulties as to access for visitors from the South will vanish. Given a three days' voyage from Shanghai and little further away, we are confident that Shinghai folk will come to Peitaiho though they pass Weihaiwei and Chefoo en route.
We, in the meantime, disparage all speculation in land by those on the lookout for a good thing." Real prices (hurd) at present run from Tls, 50 to Tls. 100, according to proximity to the sea. They have risen to this figure from Tls. 12 to Tls. 25, three years ago; the upward tendency is still maintained, but it is evident that this will not continue unless increasing numbers come. A well-to-do Shanghai paterfamilias might reasonably lock" up Tls. 1,000 in Peitaiho as in a Health Bank, but we incline to the opinion he would act foolishly in planking down Tls. 10,000 on land speculation. may be asked why could not steamers jun in there now The answer is that the landing is difficult and often dangerous, that the vessels could get no cargo, and that the situation is so far removed fron the ordinary sea-routes as to ensure loss on an exclusively passenger traffic. Only vessels on the way to Newchwang from Tientsin could, without much loss of time, stop at Peitaiho, but even then there would some risk of a ducking and of an upset to the passengers in disembarking with their luggage. Whatever the future may bring forth, we are of opinion that, for [some years'to come, Peitaiho will be the health resort of North China only.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.