26th Mar.
TueRE seems to be an impression among those who are conversant with the set of the political currents in Japan, that Mr. de Speyer's recent self-denying dispatch to the Emperor of {Corea was really actuated by the desire to give Japan a sop which would induce her not to interfere with Russian operations in China. The only thing that the Franco-Russian alliance thinks it has to fear in the Far East is an offensive alliance between England and Japan, 'I'he latter has not yet brought either her army or her navy up.to the standard she proposes for herself, but even her present forces are quite sufficient to keep the Russians out of China, and to carry the war to Viadivostock; and the English and Japanese fleets together could easily -lominate the Pacific. It appears to Russia then to be of the utmost importance that she should cou-ciliate Japan and prevent, if possible, ber do this, Mr. de Speyer has been instructed to throw over Corea, and leave it for Japan to pick up. Our own impression was that it would be vain for Russia to spread such a net as this in the sight of such a wary old bird as Marquis Ito. But to this it is answered that Marquis Ito is not above taking to himself the credit, which he would get in Japan, of ousting Russia and re-establishing Japanese influence at Seoul. If there are unpleasant consequences hereafter, the wary Marquis will go out in a blaze of triumph, and allow these consequences to be shouldered by some wore ingenuous statesman, The programme is supposed to be, that China, with -the aid of the loan just contracted with the Hongkong and Shanghai and Deutsch-Asiatische Banks, shall pay off Japan in May, and ask for the immediate evacuation, as agreed, of Weihaiwei by the Japanese, Russia will then ask for Weihaiwei, as the Cassini Convention allows her to do and what Russia asks for, China has to grant sooner or later. Weihniwei is a very much better naval station than Port Arthur,. At the latter, in its present condition, there is only room for nine vessels altogether, while the largest fleet can ride in safety at Weihaiwei, Russia sented firmly at Talienwan and Weihaiwei, and with the whole of Manchuria in her grasp, will hold the keys of North China, and shewan then, when the time comes, move down again on Corea and resume her influence at Seoul, where she will again be welcomed, unless Japan's treatment of the Coreans is very different from what it was after the Into war, The situation, if these surmises are correct, and we hope they are not, is a very serious one for England. 'I'he country is unanimous in its determination to protect freedom of trade with the whole of China, and it is understood that to safeguard this freedom of trade the independence and integrity of China must also be secured. Cabinet Ministers have been instructed to say that even at the cost.of war England will protect her treaty rights over the whole of China; but there has been n tacit understanding that Japan might berolled on to back up England in this policy, while the UnitedStates would lend moral support. If Japan has allowed herself to be bought off, as some think, the situation is seriously changed, It is not that England is not fully strong enough to enforce whatever decision her Foreign Office may be driven to take; but the loss of Japan's ce-operation on land would be a sensible one. Whatever may be Lord Salisbury's official optimism, he knows that, as Mr. A. J. Wilson puts it, our treaty rights are being recognised in form and undermined in reality. ngland.or Russia has got to give way; the question, which it isto be, is distinctly complicated by Japan's attitude. The latest Japanese papers remain strongly in
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.