Ir has long been known that the literary class in China forms a real "third estate" mediating between the officials above, and the people below, From their ranks the officials have for the most part come, and to the people themselves the whole body of scholars is indissolubly bound by ties numerous and complex. When scholars combine, they crys-tallies and express such " public sentiment" as exists in the oligarphical Chinese democracy. It is then that they strongly influence the action of officials, just as the officials influence them. It has not always been so well understood as it now is, that the influence of the literary body in China is negative rather than positive: frequently destructive, but never constructive. For this there are in Chinese conditions good and sufficient reasons, It is always much easier to feel strongly that something ought not to be done, than to reason out what ought to be done, "To follow foolish precedents and wick With both our eyes is easier than to think."
It is not strange that the scholars of China fail to understand the strange times in which their lot is cast, The Empire seems to be dissolving before their eyes, but why they do not know. Some of the evidently highly educated contributors to the ablest Chinese journals find it impossible to discuss current events without lugging in the Chou dynasty, the Three Kingdoms, the Hun and the T'ang, As to educational reform, scholars are and must be divided in sentiment. When comes it will probably be accepted without opposition but without enthusiasm, Meantime there will ensue a long march, through sandy deserts and shallow bitter lakes, with an alluring, albeit deceptive, mirage as a pilot.
What the people of China think about themselves and their country is a question of considerable importance to all foreigners having interests in this Empire. Undoubtedly by far the larger part of them neither know nor care anything whatever about the matter, one way or the other, Taxes they always have paid, and know that they must pay; to whom, is a wholly minor point.
But the steady advance of foreign aggression, the railways, the mines, steam navigation of inland water-lof the general Japanese advance ways, and especially relentless pressure of the hateful foreign indemnity, doubled or trebled by the unfailing ingenuity of the "Father and Mother" officials, has already excited profound discontent, which still finds expression in deep-seated and widespread outbreaks, requiring nothing but organisation and union to become formidable rebellion. Were the Chinese Government wise, the outlook would be less serious, but wisdom is a quality which the strongest imagination finds it difficult to associate with the rulers of China. That Orientals delight in mystery is a mere truism, but that the irrational assumptions and claims of the defeated Boxers are still cherished in the Chinese heart, would be incredible were it not demonstrated by facts. Whenever any considerable body of the Chinese people becomes permeated with the notion that supernatural (or infra-natural) influences must be called in to redress the "balance of power" now uncompromisingly and arrogantly held by the outer barbarian, the year 1900 may recur.
But this we consider highly improbable, although always possible. To conclude, the Chinese Court, the Chinese Officials, and the Chinese People are all highly uncertain factors in a highly uncertain future. If the West were but united, China could readily be led or driven into a course which would guarantee the probable perpetuity of the Empire. But with disunity in the Occident and disunity likewise in the Orient, there is no man living wise enough to cast the horoscope of the Chinese future.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.