3Ist March.
A VERY recent issue of the "Journal of the Society of Arts" contains a paper read before the Colonial Section of the Society, Sir E. A. Sassoon, Bart, M. P., in the chair, on the 24th of January last, by Mr. Byron Brenan, C. M. G., formerly H. M. Consul-General here, on " British Commercial Prospects in the Far East." The subject, as Mr. Brenan pointed out, is a large one even for a paper, and we can only give a very condensed summary of it in the limits ofan article.
After describing the conditions under which foreign trade is now carried on in China, Mr. Brenan gave an amusing description of how new ports are opened, and argued that the opening of new ports does not mean nowadays the establishment of more British firms. The work of distributing foreign merchandise and collecting native produce is now left to the native dealer. "Nor need this prospect," he says, "be viewed with regret. As a nation we are chiefly interested in the volume of trade; the prosperity of the British merchant established in China is a matter more of individual than of national concern." The volume of foreign trade in China is absurdly small, when compared with that of India or of Japan, which is partly due to the ignorance of the Chinese Government, which " will, in the pursuit of some local, temporary, and insignia ficant gain, blindly adopt measures which end in strangling trade and. killing enterprise." Even a repute edly enlighted official like Chang Chih-tung, shows himself utterly narrow-minded, and ignorant of the dictates of political economy in practice. "The narrow view, that the chief function of trade is to bring in revenue to the imperial exchequer, seems to possess Chinese officials and their foreign advisers alike. Any facility given to commerce is looked on as a dangerous innovation, as a generous concession, and as a relaxation of some necessary restriction which must be well paid for." Mr. Brenan estimates that if China had as large a foreign trade as Japan, in proportion to her population, she would have three times as large an import of cotton goods as she has now; nineteen times as large an import of woollen goods; six times as much of iron, steel, and other metals twenty-six times as much of machinery; three times as much of electrical materials and fittings; and so on. Following this comes a paragraph full of common sense, the fruit of Mr. Brenan's long experience and observation in China: "Our chief hope in the future must rest not on our Government obtaining for British subjects more facilities or so-called privileges than they already enjoy under existing treaties, but rather in utilising every opportunity that presents itself for inducing the Chinese Governmeni to give its own subjects a fair chance by granting them full liberty to improve their position and grow rich. he people of China within their limits are free spenders of money; what in our own interest we should wish to see is that they should have more money to spend. British commercial prospects in China are intimately connected with the development of China's material resource, and whatever we can do towards removing the difficulties that beset the industrious classes in that country will be a service which will be repaid to us with interest."
The extension of railways and the development of the mineral resources of China offer the best scope for the employment of foreign capital and the best promise of improvement of the condition of the Chinese; and whatever puts foreign capital into the pockets of the Chinese at once increases foreign trade. Mr. Brenan goes on to explain how illusory the Chinese Government has succeeded in making the reasonable expectation that millions upon millions of British money might be profitably invested in the construction and equipment of railways alone. The Chinese Government, such as it is, does not want railways in China, and it therefore takes the high ground that if railways are to be forced upon it by public opinion, it will keep them in its own hands; and, as Mr. Brenan says, "no matter what the earning powers of a railway might be, it is absolutely certain that under purely Chinese management the upkeep of the line would be neglected, and the earnings would be swallowed up by a numerous staff composed of the friends and relations of the board of directors" Setting aside the Peking Syndicate's private railway, which we are told will probably be taken over by the Chinese Government on the 5 per cent loan plan, " the English are only engaged in the construction of one railway—from Shanghai to Nanking. On the successful issue development of that country, we may of this undertaking a great deal depends, for the Chinese will soon have the opportunity of judging which of the several foreign companies is serving them best. So far, everything is im our favour." It must be remembered that every tulle of railway constructed is a benefit to all foreigners trading with China, and therefore in railway construction international jealousies are entirely out of place. Under the head of " Mines," Mr. Brenan quotes the fine-sounding promise made in the Treaty of Shanghai and points out that though it is now over two years since the treaty was signed, the new mining regulations framed appeared. Such regulations as have in the. Ngee spirit have not yet been tentatively issued have been studiously framed to discourage foreign enterprise in this direction as much as possible.
Mr. Brenan reiterates that the measures which would have the greatest effect on the material prosperity of China are the total abolition of internal taxation and the promotion of improved means of communication. This is well recognised in the Treaty of Shanghai, but when the provisions of that treaty will be really carried out, nobody knows. What is a decade in the. history of a country that is four thousand years old? Space fails us to follow Mr. Brenan in his discussion of Future Developments, and the capabilities of Szechuan. We have only room to commend the soundness of the views he enunciates in the last section of his paper, "The War and After." Being, as all Englishmen at any rate must be, a strong advocate of the maintenance of the integrity of China, he has no selfish fear of the predominance that Japan is acquiring in this empire, "When the war is over," he concludes by saying, "Japan's chief object will be to repair the waste and to set about improving her financial position. This she can best do by building up a strong commercial connection with her neigh-hour, and finding in China opportunities for commercial and industrial development such as she has carried out with marked success at home. Natural advantages of position and social affinity will give Japan much assistance, and make her a formidable rival, but the new fields to be opened will be accessible to all. If our trade with Japan has kept on growing concurrently with the great industrial
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.