Oct. 16.
Ar the eleventh hour and with all indications against us, we would express the most earnest hope that China may yet be spared the horrors and disgrace of another civil war. We are perfectly well aware that various kind friends are watching the Daily News," eager nything which may appear to justify them in saying that we are trying to create scares and plunge China into chaos, in order to wreck the fruition of her hopes. In answer to which, we would simply say' that during the past few days: when evidences of the probability of an outbreak have been accumulating with increasing farce, we have even held back reports for twenty-four hours on the off chance that what we had every reason to believe was true might! turn out false. Even now until the guns have spoken, peace may be preserved, as we sincerely hope it will be.
But after all, a newspaper business is to publish news and} the irresistible inference of recent events is very ominous. The) evacuation of the Shanghai area by General Shing Shi-lien brings matters to a climax. For this move two reasons may be offered: the one, that Fengtien is perfectly sincere in itS declaration that it does not wish to fight and, in proof of its bona fides, has withdrawn its troops out of harm's way; the other, and must be thought the more probable, that General Shing, not having enough troops to hold Shanghai, which is not an easy position to defend, is falling back on Soochow both to cover Nanking and to shorten his lines of communication. A good deal of sympathy will be felt for General Shing. His position during the past four months has been one of great delicacy, and, with much to hamper him in the execution of his duty, he has been no bad friend of law and order. A more dignified exit might well have been wished for} him. His departure necessarily raises some rather anxious questions as to its possible reaction on the agitator class; but in this direction we may believe that General Sun will be quite as anxious to maintain order as General Shing. The former has already incurred a heavy responsibility in the eyes of China and the world, even without carrying matters to the point of actual warfare: and in his present undertaking his object is to discredit Peking, not himself.
General Sun has published a statement on the Tariff Conference of which we give a summary to-day. Without offence it may be said that the ostensible objec tions he raises are not the real objections. Not only in the past few days but consistently for more than. two years we have urged that the surtax on the Customs agreed upon at Wash-. ington could have no other result than to clear some old loans out! of the way in order to make room for new borrowing and that, in thus giving money to Peking, the Powers would only appear guilty, in the eyes of a large section of rest. This view of the situation is merely to say in English what many Chinese are saying among, themselves and what General Sun's military"movements prove to be the real root of the quarrel. So long as the Anfu party had no greater resources than what! they could get out of surpluses and local revenues, their opponents do not seem to have objected greatly to their posing as the Government in Peking. But with, the imminent prospect of Anfu's being given the wherewithal to float a large loan abroad, the position is quite different. The men in power in Peking to-day are those who tried ineffectually to crush Marshal Wu Pei-fu in, 1920 and on whom he made vietoridus war in 1922. Since] his"defeat last autumn he has been gradually regaining power. But if the Tariff Conference went through successfully, he and all his colleagues—among. whom General Sun of Chekiang'
an important figure—are put in a position of inferiority from which it must take them a. long. time to recover. For money is power in most places, especially in China. All sorts of overtures have been made to Wu Pei-fu in recent weeks. But his fixed loyalty to the ex-President Tsao) Kun and the bluntness of his nature have brought these to, naught and, with the White Kuomintang siding with him against Peking, it seems extremely probable that an attempt is to be made to wreck the Confer-' ence.
One thing is certain, that if civil war begins, the foreign delegates will not negotiate with Peking until they know where they stand, The remedy lies in what we have again and again urged, namely, in making the conference one of real utility to China. That, perhaps, is difficult for the Powers to manage, although united action on their part, a resolute facing of facts and plain speaking in Peking would avail much. But for Peking it is perfectly possible and Marshal Tuan's Government is sincere in its protested desire. peace and the unity of China, there is a clear course before it. Let it announce frankly that! there can be no discussion of the tariff until China's internal differences have been adjusted and let it invite its opponents to a free and full discussion of those differences, at which representatives of the Powers should be invited to act as advisers. There is precedent for such a meeting in that called by Marshal Tuan himself after the death of Yuan Shih-kai. And the reward would be. not only peace instead of the conflict now facing us, but a lasting prospect of pence for all China.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.