Nov. 6.
Tne war has progressed so far that Haichow does seem to have fallen after many reports to the contrary, but there are hints that it was more or less bloodless victory, too many of Bei Bao-shan's troops having laid down their arms to a force inferior in numbers to give the impression of any battle marking the opening of a strenuous campaign, This is a very important sign, and may denote the whole character of the man q@uvres in which Sun Chuang-fang and Chang Tso-lin are at present engaged. We use the word "manceuvres" advisedly, for nobody is as yet sure whether} there is a real war afoot. For 4 week five vessels of & ty} which a seafaring man, who has just returned to Shanghai, describes as half cruiser, half transport, lave been stationed in Hangchow Bay. They belong te Fengtien—of that there is no doubt—yet they have made no move against Ningpo or Hangchow, nor have there been even any raids on coastal points. It in not stretching matters any too far to say that their quies-nce there is significant, When he means action Chang Tso-lin does not usually permit his subordinates to stay still under; any such illusory theory as the! "offensive-defensive," knowing full well that when a force seeks excuse for remaining on defensive its offensive power rapidly deteriorates. Now, when we look at the course of the Present movements, and it is significant that we hardly find any action at all, Shanghai, Nanking, Pukou all' go without a struggle, and Haichow appears to have surrendered on a threat, A similar sort of threat! has been held over Ningpo and Hangchow for days by the presence of the Fengtien Navy there, but has not been put into force. It seems to confirm the growing belief in the peaceful Purpose of all -these present movements.
Says Clausewitz in his book on war: "Out of the—whole multitude of prudent men in the world, the majority are so from timidity." Anybody who has} studied the political or politico-military situation in the last year will appreciate. how _the prudence shown in these days has its foundation in timidity, bat at the same time it is a type of that quality which it is weill for men such as Chang Tso-lin, Sun Chuang-fang and Wu Pef-fu to have at the back of their minds, In a Balkanized China, as it is to-day, there will always be found somebody to play such 2 part as Bulgaria, for instance, has on occasion done: successfully in Balkan strife—coze in at the last moment on the wi ning side and grab the spoils. By character and by reason of his military strength, Feng Yuhsiang is admirably situated to play this game. In his attitude there is nothing original, nor is: there anything' in that of Sun and Chang who are following the method by which practi-, cally all European disputes few centuries back were decided, A'hurried march by one army into the territory of another and the seizure of a couple of ime! portant commercial towns before the: opposing force could mobilixe; generally constituted a sufficient movement to bring the otHer'side to terms, "The State possession something to bargain! pay it to get out rather than to take the uncertain course of appealing to the ordeal of battle. A good deal after this fashion has been progressing between Chang Tso-lin and Sun Chuang-fang, and the absence of serious fighting certainly suggests more a jockeying for position for the purpose of negotiation than for battle. If, in this hopelessly "uncertain country of ours, it does turn out, that it is for battle, the question would be asked why not have got to it in dead earnest before now, and almost certainly the answer would be that negotiations in some quarter or another had failed.
We have taken the risk—a very great one—of trying to measure in a military sense the recent tactics of the opposing forces.
In the light of similar a movements recorded in military history there should be no other conclusion than that we hi suggested, namely that they are man@uvring for position so as to" open negotiations, being in imminent fear of a third party. This was almost always the sole of ware in Europe until the advent of Napoleon who gave everybody a rude shock by insisting upon conquests: but one has yet to find a Napoleon in China. In view, however, of the] exp: ruthless and, it is to be feared, almost inhuman impressment of civilians into the army in Kiang-ssu and Shantung, it may be suggested that these two forces have much more deadly designs upon. each other, and that this impressment outweighs _altogether the fact of the inactivity of the naval contingent in Hangchow Bay. There is no doubt that it certainly looks ominous, but it should not be taken definitely as an indication that an engagement between these armies is in immediate contemplation. Granted, they are certainly taking no chances, and all the leaders are showing I marlied dog ten of pesearenaass! for all the eventualities' of the case. It is just as likely as not that there is no more in it th preparedness. All that can be said is that in view of what has} happened during these past two weeks of tension, the normal reading of the military situation ix as we have mentioned abov A letter from Pukou two days ago stated that no hostilities were expected, but the military point of view also takes into account the. "possibility of negotiations breaking down, as well possibility of one side or other suddenly finding itself in an especially favourable tactical situation and breaking off these negotiations by a surprise attack. Further—and the worst feature of th too often in China—a general, or Admiral in charge of a fleet may desert his cause and changing the whole Wume Herbert Brenan, who has been producing the screen version of "A Kiss For Cinderella," was in London conferring with tr James Barrie, he Game across a large pa-[Per copy of "Quality Street," on the title page of which 'At twelve it was not quite the sam 'James M. ie'
At twenty, thus, with a caress, "James Mathew Barrie' At thirty T admired it less:
'J.-M. Barrie.'
At forty-five it became so:
And soon I think the 'M" wi Jone ear for twenty's. youthful swank, And then the name becomes Tt Was one of the volumes auc tioned by the Red Cros in London' uring the war, when authors were manuscripts to be seid for the bene-books andi
St of British soldiers.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.