May 19.
DvrixG the last few weeks of his Presidency of the Board of Trade Sir Auckland Geddes was, the author of several noteworthy speeches on economic subjects. For instance during March he went to Manchester where to all intents and purposes he urged a protectionist policy. Manchester may have changed its tenets! somewhat during the war years, but of old a preacher of protection was wont to talk to unsympathetic congregations. And hence there was but a mild reference to the much debated doctrine in Sir Auckland Geddes' address, but it was none the less there. He alluded to the prosperity which the country has achieved' within a remarkably short period after the war—a prosperity so marked that ther has been a fear of manufacturers neglecting their old established markets for others where fatter profits are to be had. So widespread is the demand for British goods from a world depleted of its necessaries that there is a tendency for the nation to take an extravagant view of things, to over-capitalize its undertakings, to engage in speculative flotation—always a popular pastime when on the crest of the Sir Auckland Geddes on this occasion has administered a corrective to these Utopian views, not only sound but time-for undoubtedly dangers lie ahead.
.As matters are we have shown a wonderful recuperative power in industry. But what of the time when the other countries will have been able to pull themselves together, and thanks to the lower value of their money compete on terms impossible for our manufacturers?
Sir Auckland Geddes, the report of his speech says, disclaimed any, intention of offering political advice, and said he was not going to suggest to them that free trade or that tariff reform was the better} policy. But were they prepared, he} asked, to leave the country and its manufactures and workers wholly' and totally unprotected against an irruption of goods manufactured in a recovering European country? Such an irruption of goods we at the present moment could do nothing to stop, and such an irruption of goods would come if Europe recovered—as he hoped and trusted Europe would recover—and, would sweep our market. because at the present time the high cost of living was affecting everybody: and cheap goods were absolutely irresistible.
Revolt, labour troubles, adverse trade balances and the like have served to keep this point well in the background, until at the moment we incline to believe our abounding prosperity as assured for years to come. But looking ahead for a few months we may be able to visualize this irruption of cheap Continental goods, a, factor sufficient to produce industrial dislocation with its inevitable unemployment and hardship. It is a danger which ought to be receiving attention now, for we suffered enough -in the past from dumping.
What everybody would very much like to know is how soon we are liable to suffer from this flood of goods from the Continent. In past discussions, both during and following the war, Germany has usually been mentioned as the chief purveyor, so what are the prospects from that quarter to-day? We are faced with the most contradictory reports; sometimes the population has been ready to work ten hours a day to set industry on its feet once more; at other times the difficulties have appeared almost insuperable. The fear of Bolshevism has been present, and then the revolt occurred which might have served to put production back indefinitely. Moreover, the country has been unable, through lack of financial facilities, to absorb raw material ordered for her. Yet reports during the past week speak of the mark showing a distinct improvement, and this, with other suggestions, might indicate that Germany is on the road again to becoming a competitor. It is too soon to say so definitely, for it should be borne in mind that the mark has been showing a great susceptibility to political events in America. As far back as March it appreciated upon the news that a declaration of peace was to be proposed in the Senate, and it may well be imagined that the more recent announcements, as for instance the suggestion of a treaty containing some form of reciprocity between America. and Germany and a considerable loan for her economic rehabilitation, would have a very strengthening effect. So long as European affairs are in their present, state of flux, politics have just as pronounced an effect on certain of the exchanges as do trade conditions.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.