As for the present state of the Conference, these so-called informal discussions have given birth toa large and various crop of plans for the adjustment of the tariff between this date and January] 1, 1929, when China will have tariff autonomy, if a treaty is ever signed. A tentative arrangement by which the increases stipulated at Washington were to go into effect sometime early this year while a graduated tariff, ranging from 10 to 323 per cent. would be imposed, "if the. home governments agreed, in 1927-28, was reported a fortnight ago to have very general support.
Any such scheme is, however, dependent very largely' upon Japan has shown, strong away and negotiate independently what Known as a conventional tariff. Mr. Saburi, the tariff expert attached to the Japanese Legation, recently made a flying trip Tokyo with the object of eliciting from the Japanese Government definite statement of policy, During his absence, contradictory] rumours of the results of his miss-fon have been circulated daily by otherwise responsible persons and among all the various folk who] have an interest in the outcome of the Conference there has been no ife suppressed excitement, because it is pretty generally' felt, though not officially admitted, that if Mr. Saburi has come back (he returned last night) with in. structions to negotiate independently conventional tariff, the Conference is doomed, would be establishing a precedent to which the Chinese would have to adhere if they wanted any increase in revenue. It is said now that, if Japan does act independently, France will be the first to follow suit and that all. others will then fall in line but America. If each, through the temporary obfuscation of the Chinese, were to get a minimum tariff- upon its most important imports, permitting the heavy taxation of commodities in which it did not deal, and if all nations were to be fully satisfied by China in this respect, practically all commodities coming into this.country would enter the ports at a minimum tariff and there would be little, if any, increase in revenues except through a normal increase in the-bulk of trade, It] is absurd to hope that the Chinese could agree to any such terms, Japan makes the firs, conventional tariff agreement and gets the terms she wants, it simply means that the other Powers must divide the whole burfien of increases among themselves as best an or that China must be brow- ever $1,000,000 from reserves, much lower revenue until 1929 thoft she demands and expects. Neither solution is likely to be accepted and an independent Japanese agreement is almost certain to wreck the Conference in one way or another. So Mr. Saburi's trip to Tokyo was taken with the ex-ress purpose of determining who ther Japan could agree to in-Jcreases above the Washington Conference minimum and continue to work with this Conferenee—and if} '80 on what terms—or whether she would have to break away—and start immediate negotiations—towards a conventional tariff, Japan's Prime Interest Camp-followers Gloomy perhaps requires a word!
nation. The great bulk of Japan's imports is made up of cheap manufactures which—must be sold at a minimum price China. The Japanese are con-need that any increase in the tariff over and above the increases provided at Washington would materially reduce these imports and come near ruining such great manu facturing centres as Osaka.—The Chinese, on the other hand, are ing that they are to!
Provide security for consolidation of unsecured debts and have something over for administrative expenses," the Customs revenue must total, the interim period,—$100,000,000, If there is to be no further increase in the tariff upon the bulk of Japanese imports than that provided at Washington, and China is to get anything like the revenue she demands, an unreasonably heavy burden must fall upon the trade of other nations. As a party to the Conference, Japan does not ask the other delegations to agree to the assumption of this burden. She asks China to accept less Fevenue—a total of approximately $70,000,000.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.