July 1.
Wits conditions in the capital in a most delicate state, one would not wish to burden the politicians there, struggling hard as they are against conflicting interests, with unnecessary complaint or suggestion. Rather is this the occasion for encouragement in the midst of severe trial and praise wherever it can be bestowed. There must, however, be a strong possibility in. the situation that the political aspect will completely overshadow every other, and while statesmen and their myrmidons may spend time debating the niceties of the case the actual position of the country will go from bad to worse. Politics are not everything, not even the main thing; they must be considered in these days as a handmaiden to trade just as much as anything else. Perhaps China's traditional capacity for carrying on notwithstanding all that war, famine and flood can do, has made Peking apparently callous in recent years to the effect of its acts on the country's business. If so, it has now brought matters to a very bad pass, and the cumulative effect of all the disastrous events through which China has forced a weary passage in late times is seen broadcast today. While 1921 is characterized as easily the worst for trade of recent years, the present year promises no better, if in fact it is not to ye a great deal worse, and on ihis account it is imperative that those in the capital and throughout the country should have a clear picture of the state of affairs before them and endea-your to reach some manner of settlement which will permit trade being carried on at the earliest possible moment.
Dealing in the first place with "business outside of the Government we may recall the oft deferred hopes of last year. It had opened in promising fashion, in spite of the preceding political crises and the terrible drought in the north. and the belief was current that substantial progress might be made in the work of post-war readjustment of business. This, however, was not to be, for in place of the drought of the year before disastrous floods swept large tracts of rich country, and the Yangtze, the great channel of commerce through the centre of the country, became the {scene of hostilities for many valuable weeks. The consequence was, even when these had _terminated, that in the places where natural disaster had not overtaken the inhabitants and purchasing power had remained unimpaired, confidence was dissipated by internecine strife, and trade yvemained virtually at a standstill. The Chinese merchant, however, has in his composition a great sense of optimism, and it was freely predicted that following upon China New Year the much-needed revival would be seen. Events in the days leading up to China New Year were not propitious, for if Canton's expeditionary force against the North could be discounted as an active element in the situation, the—prolonged Cabinet crisis in Peking could not. Chang Tso-lin''s march into Chibli put the finishing touch to an already deplorable state of affairs, and utter stagnation has since descended upon the trade of the country. Merchants of wide experience in Shanghai make no secret of their opinion that not even in the strenuous days of the revolution did matters come to buch a pass as at present. Ships arrive in port bringing valuable cargoes, but the Chinese dealers who act as the purveyors for the interior are unable to put their cargoes into consumption. They must be warehoused here or elsewhere, eating up money through interest charges and perpetuating the dislocation of trade No ray of light appears to penetrate through the gloom, nor will there be until Peking effects: such a settlement as will promote confidence sufficient to trade on.
So much for the needs of pri-vote business. The business in which the Government itself is interested deserves equal consideration from those consulting on affairs of state, for in different parts of the world manufacturers and engineers must be paying unusual attention to Peking's capacity, or lack of it, for ordinary business affairs. The contract for the Yellow River Bridge was awarded a considerable time ago, and since then nothing has happened. A firm in Europe was recently given the work of constructing a number of locomotives for government railways, and progress has now been made thereon to the point where the first instalment of money can be called for. An unhappy rumour is current in the capital that it is not forthcoming. Only the other day the contracts for the Peking tramways were announced,-but people regard the whole project scoptically: in the present condition of things they believe the trams are hardly likely to be seen for many a long day. None of this is for the good of the country, and while nobody expects that progress can be.made with any of these matters in the meantime, they ought neverthe-Jess to be kept before the men to whom China. is now looking. Since the beginning of the present year millions have been lost to trade through political crisis, and if one goes back to the preceding years, millions more may be added. And every week now which is lost through squabbling among politicians with private interests or provincial jealousies to serve is adding to the debit side of the balance sheet. The longer the present crisis lasts the more difficult will it be to finance the reconstruction of the country in the way it should be financed, from the trade of the country, and the more difficult will the task of the new, Ministers be. The opportunity for a break with the
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.