Tokyo, Feb. 11
February 20 will see the second [general election conducted since the Introduction of manhood suffrage into Japan five years ago. The first election under the new franchise law was held in February, 1028, and resulted in the victory of the' Sei yuki by the narrow margin of one seat over the Minseito. Six months:
Inter, however, Mr. Tokonami with) Jabout 3¢ of his personal followers seceded from the ito and formed a new party of his own, therely widening the margin between the two principal parties in the Lower House. Further defect tions from: the Minseito took place subsequently, with the result, that their numbers were reduced finally to only 170 as against the 221 seats they had won at the elections.
Meantime the Seiyukai strength] had been increasing and -by July fast year, when Tokonami and his followers' dissolved the new party they had formed a year previously jand amalgamated with the Government Party, the Seiyukai held an! absolute majority in the Diet with '2 total of 240 members. This was! the position when the Seiyukai Ministry fell so suddenly and unexpectedly, their fall being brought!
5 so often happens in Japan, influences outside! the Seiyukat holding a clear majority and his own party, the Minseito, reduced to 70 seats less than its' great rival, it was obvious that Mr. Hamaguchi, the new Pre-rier, would have to go to the polls to seek a working majority in the Lower House. Unless he did $0, would have to face the prospect of having all his administrative measures blocked by a hostile House when the next session of the Diet! met in December. It was simply a question of whether to call an flection straight away or wait until the Diet actually met before taking steps to dissolve it. Mr. Hamaguchi chose the latter course and spent, the intervening six months in putting his policy of economy and retrenchment into effect without} more ado. How well ho succeeded witnessed by the rapid rise in the rate of exchange, the drastic cut the Budget estimates, the re markable reduction in the adverse balance of trade and, last but not least, the raising of the gold em-
To effect so much within the short space of six months speaks well for the sincerity and ability of Mr. Hamaguchi are his colleagues and will no doubt stand them in good. stead at the election. On the other: hand, the campaign of economy and retrenchment has resulted inevitably in depressing business and industry Jand in causing a large increase in unemployment and distress in! various forms.
This is bound to lose the Minseito a goodly number of votes, though probably not nearly as many as the votes it will gain as a result of its successes enumerated above. In like manner, the scandals in which both the Seiyukai and the Minseito have been shown to have been involved to affect the voting to small extent, though here agai the' Minseito are fikely to gain more than they lose, as the Seiyukai were far more deeply implicated in these scandals than were the present Government. party.
Taking those and other factors {into consideration, the probability is that the Minseito will be returned inthe coming elections with a margin over the Seiyukai, but without a sufficient number of seats to ceive them a clear majority in the Diet. 'The pro independ ents and other minor groups, therefore, will probably hold the balance and' will be able, accordingly, exercise a greater influence than their numbers actually warrant.—Reuter.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.