Mar, 9.
APPEARANCES are suggestive of a check in the rate of development of Shanghai during the current year. It is, of course, somewhat difficult to decide by what criterion development should be gauged, for if we take any of the normal standards of measurement trade statistics, the census, amount of building going on—we are faced with the statement that they are incomplete guides. Customs returns, for instance; fail to show what is being earned by certain sections coming under the heading of ''services'', insurance being a good case in point and in our commerce a very important item. Then, in the absence of a Labour Bureau or Board of Trade, employment figures can never be anything more than approximate. The same objections apply to building operations as a criterion, but at least the latter have one advantage. They show the response of supply to demand, and that demand gives an indication of the requirements of trade and commerce. There is, however, this qualification, namely, that building also connotes a faith in the future and at any time may outrun, even designedly, the needs of the present. When it has done so to any extent a halt is called, and then we are afforded the opportunity of looking back on past development and may even be able to decide the point where it reached its temporary climax. Taking. thus the criterion of building, we find that all indications are that activity will be less this year than in the past twenty-four months and that' much less capital will be invested in new construction schemes than during the period just mentioned.
The wonderful activity prevailing during 1921 and 1922 tends perhaps to create an erroneous impression of the rate of development in Shanghai, having, as it did, a character so pronouncedly in contrast to what had occurred during the previous years. Statistles show that in the few years prior to the war, say between 1912 and 1914, development was proceeding at a very steady rate, leach period showing an increase in building over its predecessor. Then during the war years this increase came to an end. Building, it is true, went on all the time, but apparently failed to [keep pace with the growing
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.