If this forecast is justified by the result, which will be known on February 21-22, it will be regarded, as a victory for the Government, and the, present Tanaka Cabinet-will remain in power with its hands very much strengthened, for its: cupporters only. had: 168 seats in the. House. which was dissolved on January: 21.
Clone political observers here say that the minimum number of seats! required by the Government Party, to keep General Tanaka in power is 220, for they will be able to fall} back on the Independents to make up the necessary majority of 234. If they fall short of this minimum, the Government is defeated, and General Tanaka must go° out, to be repieced by the Minseito Party, of which Mr. Hamaguchi is the leader.
There are those who believe that General Tanaka would "hang on" if his party secured 210 or even 200} seats. On the other hand, if the Minseito became larger than the Seiyukai even by a few seats, it] would be difficult for the Government party to count on the support} of the Independents.
The present campaign is, there. fore, being waged very largely as} between the Seiyukai and the! Minseito, but the outside world will be interested in witnessing the rise! of what are called here the Pro-rotarian parties. Supporters of the latter hope they will secure 20 seats in the coming elections for thia would give them the balance of power, a3 between the Government and the Opposition, which would enable them to dictate their terms cither to the Seiyukai or the Minseito. That is the most interest-_ ing point in the present campaign, although pessimists predict that out] of 76 proletarians only 10 or 15 may bbe returned, certainly not more than 20. A clear and convincing explanation is lacking for this pessim- 7 ism. Probably it is due to the knowledge that the Japanese farm ers and working-men do not like to be classed as "Musan Kaikyu" lated, "non-property They all dream of becoming Iandlords and capitalists. Socialism is only half understood by them, and they do not see in the anything that would" make happier or their burdens lighter. At the same time it must be concede ed that the rise of the proletariat {s a significant element in Japanese polities.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.