2 Sept. 16.
AvrHoucH here and there a more hopeful feeling has recently been apparent, a considerable amount of uneasiness prevails in business circles' in Shanghai concerning the political situation. At the back of this nervousness stands Chang 'T'so-lin, and for tear of what he may do now or in the near-future, Chinese merchants are chary of committing themselves to any- extensive business operations. This attitude can readily be understood. Recently Japanese telegrams have suggested that the Mukden War Lord has been taking steps to concentrate his forces, and while Reuter subsequently announced that no signs of such activity were to be observed in the vicinity of the neutral zone, these other reports could not but have their effect on the outlook of the merchant. Then while Wu Pei-fu is occupying a position at Loyang, one of almost splendid isolation in poli-tins, he is none the less keeping a very close watch on the military situation, and his appreciation of it has led him to continue the recruiting of men for his army. Wu Pei-fu announces that this is purely for defensive purposes, and no doubt that is perfectly correct. In a nervous atmosphere such as the present, however, the fact that he has to take these precautions must increase the prevailing "distrust in the situation. It is all very unfortunate, but the position has to be faced.
Notwithstanding his retiral behind the Great Wall and the subsequent internal trouble in Manchuria, nobody has ever believed that Chang Tso-lin had run his course as one of China's masters. On the contrary, the impression prevails—and there seems everything to support it—that by force of arms or politico) intrigue he will endeavour sooner or later to regain his former commanding position. The question which is perturbing people is when Chang is likely to make this attempt. In this connexion 4 very interesting opinion is expressed in local Chinese political circles which incline to the view that he will bide his time and only take the field when he has a thoroughly organized army at hus back. A great many students from Manchuria have in recent years been) sent to military academies abroad, and we know that they are now being recalled home for the purpose of effecting the reorganization of the army. They cannot hope to accomplish this work all at once, in fact to de it with any degree of success would occupy many months, and it seems doubtful whether Chang can wait until it is really completed. Its completion would put the date of any fresh campaign back probably a couple of years, but some of our local politicians profess to believe that such a delay might well be within Chang's outlook on things, though at the same.time they freely admit that success on the part of agents working for support in provinces inimical to Wu Pei-fu might precipitate a clash of arms very much sooner. The merchant classes here adopt a different view, and on the assumption that the present season is too far advanced for any exeursion from Manchuria, consider it among the probabilities for next spring. Chang's agents are at present making considerable purchases in Shanghai of the cloth favoured in China for military uniforms, as well as other material needed for the outfitting of an army; and he is also known to have engaged foreigners to a considerable number. These are no doubt intended to be used as instructors, but that has not prevented rumours emanating from the north that Chang has in mind the ambitious scheme of a foreign legion, to be composed, naturally, of Russian ex-soldiers. These reports tend to support the merchants as against political circles in looking for interesting events at a comparatively early date—next spring at the latest.
Looking at the matter either way, on the theory of a prolonged reorganization or a much swifter one to achieve immediate results, there is always the question of where Mukden is to find the money for it. It is said—on how good authority we know not—that the recent disastrous enterprise cost Chang Tso-lin fourteen million dollars and that the Manchurian war chest now contains twenty million dollars. This has been accumulated in various ways, one item of six million dollars being a contribu-ton from the Peking Government for the purpose of the expeditionary force against the Russian Red troops in Urga. No expeditionary force ever set out, but instead representatives in the guise of diplomats proceeded to Urga and suggested to the Reds the advisability of evacuating the region, otherwise, Manchuria's full strength would fall upon them. The Reds simply ignored this threat, which must have been most exasperating, but at any rate no expedition was ever despatched. Chang T'so-lin was also understood to be receiving a monthly subvention from Peking, but naturally this is now at an end. That must be a severe blow to his ambition, end certainly his day of easily earned money seems to have passed. It is believed, however, that from now onwards, the irrigation project which he introduced into parts of Manchuria will provide a handsome income, as it is said that over the irrigate ed districts he will receive contribution from, the farmers amounting to about eighty cents a mow, in return for these aforementioned -works. This is expected to yield a very considerable sum of money, and while General Chang may no longer be able to boast of his former affluence, there is no question
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.