Her Interests and the Future: The Changing Situation in China: Britain's Friendly Intimation The "Manchester Guardian" of views of Japan's setivities in Ala Antung.
August 20, publishes the achieia, from a Kecont events in China have given new importance to Munchurid, The question of its government has become a vital one with the advent of a Nationalist Government in Nanking. "Since the Republic was established, in 1911, this vast province—six times larger than Jand and Wales—has had ser independent rulers; the recently assassinated Chang Tso-lin was the most powerful. But prior to 1911! Japan had established herself in Manchuria, The victorious issue of the Russo-Japanese War in 1905 Jeft_her in possession of Mukden, and that gave her not only possession of the entire Korean Peninsula but, through the control of the railways constructed for military purposes, practical control of South Manchuria for all administrative and economic purposes. By an agreement made later with Russia she was understood to have South Manchuria as her sphere of influence while Russia had the North, The definite aim of Terauchi, first Governor General of Korea, was to establish at Mukden a" central authority from which Korea and South Manchuria could be controlled. No doubt existed in the} ids of observers on the spot that ie final goal of Japanese policy was the annexation of Manchuria, the incorporation of the whole Province with its vast potential wealth in the Japanese' Empire. the pertinent facts will demonstrate this incontestably. What are they?
'A Changed Situation 1. A Central Chinese Govern. ment has at last materialized. It may know rebuffs and defeats. It may be inperilied by the folly of its friends or by the machinations of its enemies. But it is established at Nanking. It is significant that tone of its first acts is an attempt to reassert its authority in Manchuria, To attain this it secks to assume effective control of affairs at Mukden, Dr. Wang and his ies may have been hasty and ised in denouncing a certain ly 21, 1896—and in havin provided Japan with reasonable grounds for the "warning" served upon China in her Note of July 31, to the effect that if Nanking does supplant treaty arrangements "by unilateral provisional regulations" the Japanese Government may be obliged "to take such measures as it deems suitable to safeguard its rights and interests assured treaties." Obviously the "warning" is tantamount toa threat. Of course, it may be a big bluff. But of one thing onlookers may be certain, There is ample evidence that Chinese statesmen accurately appreciate Japan's power to enforce hor claims by such measures as her. Government "dooms suitable."
Japan had every temptation to try to repeat her earlier and successful Korean policy. Conditions and events were in her favour.
China following the revolution was torn by dissensions. I states mien and soldiers "staked' out claims for themselves, and defied the authority of Poking, The Groat War—in which China joined ultimately—offered the military party in Tokyo a golden opportunity Japan to assert herself in Chi and to increase her prestige ai power on the mainland of Asi Precisely when the European mi tary situation appeared most unfavourable to the Allies the Japa exe Government presented a seri of demands—the famous 21 de-manis—which, had China, conceded them, world have put the whole country politically and economically under Japanese control, Outside pressure forced Japan to withdraw them. Naturally they created widespread suspicions, not only in China Dut also in the West. They aroused deep resentment in the minds of China's millions. Chinese-Japanese velations have been more or less strained eer since.
The Chinese in Manchuria 2 The whole situation has! changed in Manchuria in reeer years. It fs now greatly popula ed, especially in the north, not with Japanese but with a vigorous and i ly growing Chinese popu-Japanese are overwhelm mingly outnumbered—some ¢stimates suggest 20 Chinese to one Japanese! The immigrants, from Shantung mainly—driven out by famine and civil war—number millions; 1,000,000 entered Manchuria in 1927. The total population is said to be about 30,000,000 <in 1916 the South Manchurian Railway estimated it at 20,112,000; in 1922 the Post Office estimate was 22,082,000. It would be difficult, if not impossible, for Japan to enforce such measures as her Government "deems suitable" in face of a hostile population bent upon des troying the authors of these measures, 3. The growth in population is not greater than the growth of the wealth and influence of the Chinese doments. Chinese banks and financial houses have invaded "Peaceful Penetration.
Defeated in this frontal attack on Chinese indepensience and territorial integrity, Japan made persistent flank attacks, She joined forces with Russia. "She used her banks, her railway systems, her commercial corporations, ker military forees to strengthen her hold on Manchuria, and correspondingly to weaken any Chinese Government, whether pro vineial or at Peking. Tt is not to be forgotten that originally one isy~ portant factor was in Jnpan's favour. Manchuria was. thinly populated as a whole. The n areas between the Amur and the Sangan, and all the immense prairieland through which the Chinese Eastern Railway now runs from Manchuli to Vladivostok. was uninhabited save for stray hunters, fish-skin Tartars, and other nomads. centres like Darien (Dalns), hitherto Japanese preserves—sacred and inaccessible. Japanese shippers and agents have found Chinese merchants competing successfully with them all over the province. Hopes of exclusive possession based upon vital and economic predominance have gradually vanished. Japan can hardly be blamed for the failure of her gigantic plans. She had thrown her whole strength 'a: her Manchurian policy. She claims to have material interests inthe province amounting to £235,000,000. But really all she has accomplished is to arouse the enmity of the Chinese elements of the population by the rapacity and arrogance she has exhibited. Even the Japanese press now openly acknowledge the unwisdom of Japan's policy not only in Korea but still more in Manchuria, The surplus Japanese population drawn on to people these Lani as n the ease of Korea. This Japanese population would form the phasis, it was hoped, of a permanent and unshakable hold upon the entire country. This was accom) unremitting development yeaching—plans—ceonomie and political. A policy of "peaceful penetration" throughout South Manchuria, extending ever north. wards, made the absorption Manchuria as a whole only a matter of time, The disastrous civil wars which shattered the whole fabric of Chinese rife appeared to have put out of question any power of resistance. Japan appeared to have the whole field to herself. Yet day the realization of Japan's dream is shattered. Any review of in's Friendly Intimation There remains one other very significant fact. The question of Manchuria was raised in the Foreign Affairs debate in the House of In reply to 1d questions Sir Austen on behalf of Majesty's Government, said: "We do not recognize Manchuria as anything but 1 part of CI Now, i earlier in the same month, in a written reply to a question by Mr. Malone, Sir Austen had declared: "His Majesty's Government regard Manchuria as being part of China; they did not recognize Japan having any. special interests in that territory other than those conferred by treaty." Later in the debate Mr. Lloyd George said he was de-
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