Sept. 27.
Not so many days ago we alluded to the unsettling influence upon the trade of the country of Chang Tso-lin and his ambitions in pickle at Mukden, and to so grave straits has trade been reduced that a still wider consideration is demanded. To get the trade position at all clearly in our minds, so as to estimate the influence of such people as General Chang upon it, one or two primary considerations should first be disposed of. One of the foremost of these is the record revenue which Customs statistics show is being reaped by China, with its natural snggestion that prosperity is at a higher level than ever. Accurate figures of stocks are not available, but the fact that the godowns of Shanghai are groaning under the weight of cargo stored in them tells its own tale. There has been a huge revenue, but it has in considerable measure been paid out of the accumulated funds of the Treaty Port merchants, and it does not constitute proof that trade is flourishing. The truth is that, in a business such as piece goods, merchants imported their germal requirements for the season's trade in the spring and paid the duty upon them, but instead of these importation going immediately into consumption, the state. of the country has to an enormous extent immobilized them in Shanghai. It has to be remembered that here they are, occupying valuable godown space, eating up money by way of interest, yet to the untutored observer showing a fictitious business. prosperity for China. Having mentioned that state of affairs, it may be as well to allude to the so-called trade boom of 1919-20 which brought so great disaster fu its train. While to a very considerable extent the effects of this orgy of over-trading have been liquidated, we have to expect certain effects still to remain, and are prepared to admit their continued influence upon the general situation. They, however, are small compared with the other factors at work, and can be dismissed with a, mention.
As stated in our previous article on the subject, probably the main cause of trade depression in China to-day is to be found in Manchuria. We may put the close of active hostilities between Chang Tso-lin and Wu Pei-fu about the end of May, and it is the feeling of uncertainty succeeding their armistice that in conjunction with one other great cause has compelled merchants to keep their goods under lock and key in the security of the Treaty Ports rather than to send them circulating through the interior. It is unnecessary again to relate the ambitions of the Mukden War Lord, but a further reference to the uncertainty of time in his calculations is called for. There are reports that he is ready to move almost immediately, but on the other Hand merchants here still regard a postponement until at least next
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.