Shanghai, Nov. 2.
Before Marshal Tsao Kun's recent "election" to the presidency there was a very big group within his following who believed that his elevation to his present position, would be the signal for a national rising against him. It is also undoubtedly true that the narly factions of his enemies believed that he would be very quickly and easily destroyed if he had the temerity to assume the presidency and that in various quarters opposition to the election was deliberately withdrawn so that the election itself might serve as a stimulus to more serious opposition, The results of the election were no sooner announced, therefore, than both foreigners and Chinese throughout North China commenced assuring each other that Tsao Kun's fate was sealed, that a huge coalition would be forming against him immediately and that there would be war on an unprecedented scale in the spring in which the Chihli organization would be completely crushed. A few weeks ago no one dceubted in Peking that the Anfu, Kuomintang, Fengtien and other Broups were busily organizing and shaping their plans and that a campaign against Tsao Kun and his followers would have the enthusiastic support of the whole nation. It 1s probable that these views are stil! held in the north and it is more than likely that the majority of well informed observers in Peking still believe, as they did when the writer left the capital two weeks ago, that the nucleus of this hypothetical anti-Chihli coalition ig to be found in Shanghai, From Shanghai, however, the politico] field takes on an entirely different aspect. There is not even the seed of an anti-Chihli coalition here. No element is advertising a war in the spring, no leader is issuing a call and none of the elder statesmen living in retirement here believes that a Spring war ig likely or even possible. All hands agree that a government: by: and for the Tientsin clique with Tsao Kun as figure head is about as bad a government as Ohina could possibly be given. All hands agree also that he cannot last for ever and that the Chibli party will collapse sooner or later, but they insist that when Tsao Kun collapses it will not be through organized opposition of hostile factions bue through the disintegration of the Chibli party and through the sheer ineptitude of its leaders.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.