Jan, 12.
While, at the moment of weiting, firing is going on briskly in the environs of Lunghua and Siccawei, it is somewhat premature to attempt to estimate the political outcome of Marshal Chi. Hsieh-yuan's undertaking, But seeing that the resistance of General Chang Yuan-ming's men cannot be more than terporary—their leader having prudently bolted inside the French Concession and they themselves being virtually surrounded—and in order to avoid more panic than is necessary, a tew salient factors in the general situation should be emphasized.
We are in no way seeking to "boom" Marshal Chi when we say that we believe it would be best for Shanghai that he should win in the present encounter, best, in the long run, that he should regain Nanking. Of his administration in the past, it might be said that while he has left undone a great many things that he ought to have done, he certainly did not do a great many other things that he might have done-things that the pro-Vinzials of Kiangsu would have found exceeding grievous to be borne. His administration, in a word, might have been better, Dut it might also have been very much worse.
Now Chi Hsieh-yuan is the last of the great leaders of the Chibli party. Practically throughout all north and central China, the Anfu party hold sway and their man, Lu Yung-hsiang, is actually in Nanking. In point of fact the Anfu party have no very good name in China. Whether they deserve it or not, it is fairly to be assumed that any rehabilitation conference they might call, in cireumstances as they were at the end of Inst week, would have proved 4 mere farce, a would-be legal pretence to cover the distribution of plums among Anfu par tians. It could never achieve peace. But if Chi Hsieh-yuan recovered Nanking, buttressed a he would be by the Tuchuns o Chekiang and Kiangsi, and with the Southwest, which declines to accept the present Peking regime, in alliance with him, we have an opposition which Anfu must respect. It may be argued, of course, that this would merely mean a prolongation of war. But we believe that the leaders themselves are sufficiently tired of fighting to make that less likely than a conference which would reprexent all parties.
As for the local situation it is, by all accounts, an excellent thing for Sharghai to get of Chang Yuan-ming, who has been occupying the post of Defence Commissioner since last October, when Chi Hsieh-yuan himself sent him here to keep order after the flight of Lu Yung-hsiang. That Chang has since come to terms with Anti Sifected and' may stewd AGAIN refugees are pouring! into the Settlement or its outlying districts. Again peaceful homes are being ruined and their; owners are being driven to seek shelter wherever it may be had.
The store of food laid up for winter consumption and the delicacies set aside for enjoyment at the new year are being commandeered by hungry soldier darker and grosser crimes, which we will not mention, are not un-side bordering on Shanghai is living in daily apprehension much worse things to come. For} these are but the beginning of sorrows. Lu Yung-hsiang has crept down with his armies from Chihli and Shantung, through] Anhui to Kiangsu and Nanking and General Sun Chuan-fang is preparing to oppose his taking possession of this, which he conders the richest part of the territory over which he is to rule. Moreover, the arsenal is located here and, to an oficial the maintenance of whose position depends fon.the strength of his army, its possession is a question of primary importance. It is certainly, a mad world. Not many months: ago Chi Hsieh-yuan was ruler of Kinngsu and Lu Yung-hsiang was Governor of Chekiang. Chi demanded that Lu should return! to him the jurisdiction over Shanghai and its district which had been wrongly usurped by him. Lu's refusal precipitated a war in which Chi was victorious and it seemed as though Shanghai was to revert to its original posi tion as an integral part of the province of Kiangsu. But when Feng Vu-hsiang turned against Wa Pei-fu the victory in. the South was quickly followed by a débécte in the North. The vietorious southern Generals found that by an unexpected turn of fortune's wheel they had won the war but lost the fruits of victory. Their leader, Wu Pei-fu, being forced to flee, the edifice they had reared at the cost of so much! bloodshed and misery collapsed like a house of cards. The victor, Chi, way deposed from his office and the vanquished, Lu, appoint-his stead.
Lu now comes south, backed by a powerful force of Fengtien troops, and makes the same demand of Sun Chuan-fang, who in his former office as Governor} of Chekiang, as Chi, in his day, made of him. Lu, who, in the war fought a few months ago, strove to retain the Shanghai district under Chekiang, now fights to have it under Kiangsu and Sun, who fought under Chi, to make Shanghai belong to}
Kiangsu, now takes up the gage of battle to retain it as part of his recently acquired province of Chekiang. The leaders and the armies have changed sides and each is fighting now for what it opposed a little while ago. And for this thousands of homes are being ruined. The same flight of refugees that we see around is in no way extraordinary.
Among the Chinese, his tion, to put it mildly, not enviable. With hi ction, the Shanghai district comes wholly under the control of one party, Chihli, and there is a reasonable Shanghai is taking place all along the long line of the soldier's march from Chibli to Nanking! and from Nanking to Shanghai It may be that the Fengtien troops are better disciplined than} those we seem our vicinity, but
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.