Hob. 5.
'THe suddenness with which peace has been brought back and Shanghai's long desire for the extinction of Kiangnan Arsenal realized, with further promise of the demilitarization of the whole Shanyhai-Woosung area, leaves tone slightly dizzy and perhaps also slightly sceptical, Tt really "ins too good to be true, For ths Shanghai has been in either of open war or of that held no promise of. county, and although we, may ryrrattilate ourselves on having yaped fairly well on the whole, enormous interests centred 1 Shanghai have made the xieties of all very great. Less a fortnight ago the seneral senation with which Shanghai 8 faced was unquestionably 2 of the gravest in its histo ud now to all appearances the Fouds have rolled away. So] ich for what can be done in China by one resolute man back-"al by @ compact force disciplined and equipped. Probably Marshal "ak would have held out longer had not been undermined by treachery. But the best of his troops were not as yeood as General Chang's and the worst were very bad indeed, who have behind them no name but for cowardice and looting.
If there be some who remain doubtful of the beatific vision of peace and wonder what may be behind it, it must be admitted that they have some reason, In first place we doubt whether eral Sun Chuan-fang will for very long be left in undisturbed possession of Chekiang, He has: een very lucky so far. He got. Chekiang in the first place practically without—fighting; his occupancy of it was recognized by Peking; and now after he has actually taken up arms ayainst Peking once more, he hus been able to profit by Peking's reluctance to further fighting while the! tation Conference is session, in order to make good terms for himself, vastly that must withdraw their These are things which Tikel Another id General Chang ave not point of reward will fall to General Chang Chung-chang himself? His position as Marshal Chang Tso-lin's chief general is distinguished, but not particularly lucrative. There have been vague reports in the Chinese Press that Lu Yung-hsiang at Nanking had expressed himself ready to hand over Kianysu to General Chang. Probably never did anything of the sort. and the report was merely the Chinese way of recognizing that Codlin was the friend (at any' rate the man worth. toadying) and not Short. But General Chang has not yet drawn any of the big prizes and might, not unnaturally, be wanting one. Another unsettled cause of trouble is the opium revenue, It is a good thing to shut up the Arsenal, but while the opium trade goes on merrily, there indeed is a carcase over which the eagles will be gathered together. Recent events have put the "authorities in possession of sensational information as to the extent of this trade'
:]and the people engaged in it, publication. of which will be awaited with the greatest interest.
'Unless the connexion between'
Chinese officialdom and the opium. smoker can be cut for good and all, the demilitarization of the Shanghai district is but half accomplished.
Meanwhile from recent events! there arise one highly interesting question and one obvious lesson. The question is, what is Marshal] Chang Tso-lin going to do with) his army? According to estimates believed to be fairly trustworthy, he has about 130,000 troops as well officered, equipped and disciplined as those now in Kiangsu. He has by all accounts a great many more, but the rest are probably no more worth taking into} account than the average Tuchun's army. The 130,000, if all of the quality seen here, are quite] enough to arouse speculation. Then there is General Feng Yu-'s army: his picked troops (as distinct from those he has acquired from others in the last few months) we have seen estimated anywhere—between!
{10,000 and 20,000 and, by the opinion of foreign experts, they' are of a formidable nature.'
Then there is Governor Yen Hsih-san, in Shansi, who has [built up an army not big but! remarkably efficient and like Chang Tso-lin has given special attention to the creation of a large corps of officers and noncommissioned officers. Armies of this calibre present an entirely different problem to that of the "uniformed coolies" of yore. We suggest no answer to the question raised, but that question isn to be ignored,—Concurrently, there is the lesson of the enormous. prestige of the Russian soldiers brought into this district. As they came slowly down the railway in their armoured cars, Chis troops simply melted before! them. If this is the result of employing foreign experts in the! destructive fields of battle, what might not be done for China if other experts were given equal responsibility and freedom of! action in productive regions?
When all misgivings are allowed for, und every apparent cause of hopefulness' discounted, remains a good augury that, Peking would not carry the war into Chekiang and that the Rewbilitation Conference should open to the accompaniment of so icing proof of Marshal! Tuan Chi-jui's desire for peace. The conference, plainly, will have to do w great deal to justify itself. Although merchants, students and labour organizations]
re to be allowed to send representatives, the conference is still to all outward appearance at the merey of Anfu military chief-[iting trid "De. "Sun Yates fallowert as. yet mand oan ato ly tau it ate thing is believable, that Marshal Tuan himself desires peace and for the moment he has got it. There are, no doubt, petty local bickerings in various directions} and the brigands are a terrible scourge. But as a whole the country is more at the disposal of the Government party in Peking than it has been for many years. How will this opportunity be The Chinese are easily ied with a very little concession by their. rulers, judging. by the gross iniquities which they patiently endure; and the chance now offered to Peking might, without much suerifice of perquisite and emoluments, be so used that Chihli would' find it! hard to raise another revolt. For the people are sick of war. There is an opportunity now for statesmanship such as no rulers of China have had since Imperial days.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.