The importance attached by the Japanese io the struggle which is developing with increased tempo around Hsuchowfu is in-ated by the statements attributed to Admiral Nobumasa Suetsugu, Japanese Home Minister, who is reported to haversaid that impending military developments will force the collapse of the Hankow Government, and that "the situation is coming to a definite pa: The admiral admitted that even then, when Generalissim> Chiang Kai-shek is driven inland, he may still refuse to say he was finished.. That view is naturally not shared by the Chinese leaders and General Li Tsung-jen in command of the Shantung-Anhwei-Kiangsu war zone has expressed his confidence in the outcome of the fight 4 veloping in the area under his charge. Chinese reports suggest that a strength of no less than 400,000 men are being used to prevent the important railway junction of Hsuchowfu falling into Japanese hands. Opposed to that force, formidable in numbers if not in equipment, is a considerably smaller body of Japanese whose superior material and equipment fully compensates for the numerical difference and gives the advantage to the invaders. That in turn offset, to some extent, by the determination and gallantry of the Chinese in the field, the heightened morale resulting from the successful manner in which they have held up the Japanese columns in area and the reverses they have managed inflict upon their opponents. The setback which the Japanese received at Taierchwang and the stubborn resistance which the Chinese have been able to put up cast of Hsuchowfu erally has led to a change in Japanese plans, and it is now intended to take by envelopment what did not fall {o a front! attack. The principal developments along this line are to be found in the progress made by the Japanese columns southwest from Tsining, having Kueiteh as the main objective, and the advance on Mengchen from the south, and further progress northwestwards again aiming towards the same city. The total result up to the present is that the distance separating the northern and southern Japanese forces is reduced to something under 100 miles.
The fate of Hsuchowfu depends upon when ther these two movements can be sufficiently developed still further to reduce that ga and, if they succeed m: y in doing so, General Li Tsung-jen will find himself obliged to retreat from the environs of that city and withdraw westward as quickly as possibi It will be by no means an easy matter to extricate his 400,000 men from the area in which they are at present, for he will be completely deprived of railway ties and will have to move across country with little road communication. Any idea of remaining at Hsuchowfu and fighting it out would be suicidal, would in no ways contribute to a Chinese victory, and would entail the sacrifice of a large body of men, who because of what they have already gone through are probably by now the best material China has in her armies, for they should be tough, seasoned warriors. Should the Japanese command succeed in their declared intention of trapping General Li Tsung-jen's fore they will have achieved the' biggest victory of their present campaign, and will have succeeded in bringing the Chinese armies to a positional battle in which the superiority of material must inevitably gain the day. Fortunately for the Chinese, it has been repeatedly shown that their high command generally succeeded in avoiding any such disaster, and what the next few days will have'to decide is whether the Japanese can prosecute the familiar pincer-like movement to its expected conclusion before General Li can get his men ut. Recent utterances of Japanese leaders seem to indicate that following the fall of Hsuchowfu the downfall of the Chinese Government will occur. In this the wish may be father to the thought. There are at present no indications of anything of the nature occurring, and, indeed, the utterances of the Generalissimo and his supporters indicate that the determination to resist the Joan: e aggression is just as strong as ever vas, and even t ible loss of Hsuchow-which has tong been contemplated by the Chinese command, is unlikely to have any great effect in reducing it.
What then are the probable developments if and when the Japanese obtain control of the Tsin-pu Railway? If General Li can remove his forces more er less intact they will undoubtedly be used in the defence of Hankow, before which, it has been repeatedly announced, it is the intention of the Chinese Government to make a big stand. Here a repetition of the recent history of Hsuchowfu may be expected. It would be idle to suggest that the Chinese would be unable to offer effective resistance against any move on their temporary capital. At the very least they may be expected to put up as fine a fight as they are doing around Hsuchowfu while their enemies will be at a disadvantage owing to the greatly increased length of the lines of communication and the larger possibilities this will offer for the guerrilla tactics which throughout north China are proving so embarrassing. Even the fall of Hankow need ct necessarily mean the end of hostilities.
Chiang Kai-shek in one of his pronouncements contemplated in that event retreat into ihe mountains of west China whence he would maintain a continual barrassment of the Japanese forces, putting Japan to continual and great expense, and bringing about that financial attrition which the Chinese leaders have regarded as one means of ultimately winning this undeclared war. Pursuit of such a policy might it is true not lead to the driving out of the invaders, but it may eventually induce them to come to terms which at present they so steadfastly refuse to do. It is natural that the Japanese should look forward to a collapse of the Chinese Government. They have hold of the tiger by the tail and it is difficult and dangerous to let go. Their only chance is that the tiger will lose his head, and perhaps by continually twisting his caudal appendage that might be brought about. At present it does not seem very likely. There are no perceptible signs that the Chinese Government is near collapse. The Japanese statesmen would like it to be, for on the present showing that is the only means by which they can attain the ultimate triumph which alone will justify their reckless incursion into China, Champions, Reflections Champions Day is over with its triumphs' and its disappointments. A Champions pony has once again justified its superiority with an excellent win which has accorded Radiant Morn almost monopolistic privileges to the title. Somewhere in Shanghai, or perhaps farther afield, fortune has smiled on the holder of the winning ticket which this year has approached the vicinity of those halcyon days when the Champions winner represented a goodly sized fortune and retirement. The most significant aspect of the di however, as far as Shanghai is concerned is not the actual result, for there will be racing wherever racing enthusiasts exist, but the increased popularity shown in the meeting as evidenced by the large crowd at the Shanghsi Race Club on Wednesday when Radiant Morn annexed his fifth Champions. Racing has been on the wane for some years owing to general depression followed by political difficulties. and some of the meetings were nothings less than tragic demonstrations of communal despair when contrasted with other days when everybody went to the Champions meetings and enjoyed themselves without seriously interfering with. the mercantile machinery of the port. Wednesday revealed a great change. Racegoers of many decades were greatly impressed by the large ata enthusiastic crowd whit h brought back memories of brighter days and stimulated hopes for the beautiful weather exercised its subtle charm and the women visitors produced a dress display well in keeping with the traditional standard, adding to the brightness of the day. The pessimist, mistaking the silver for the grey in the clouds over Shanghai, might remark that misery needs company and hence the crowd; but the optimistic view must prevail ihat the life of the community is receiving constant new stimulants from the challenge to survive, develop against difficulties, and progress to greater triumphs springing from the proud history of this international ci
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.