Despatches published over the week-end, detailing the growing Russo-Japanese tension and the possibility of war between the two countries, should not necessarily be read as indicating that hostilities are imminent. It is true that there has been a large number of incidents calculated to give rise to the est concern in both Tokyo and Moscow, and of them quite a number seems to have been of sufficient dimensions to provoke a Nevertheless there has been up to the ent, and will probably continue so to be, a mutual desire to refrain from hostilities, chiefly because neither side has any great degree of certainty as to what would be the ultimate outco k è recent outbursts the Japanese press, obviously with the consent of the authorities who exercise considerable restraint over that institution in Japan, may be regarded in a number of different lights, not the least of which is the possibility that it was done for the purpose of diverting Japanese attention from the fighting in China, until the time comes for the broadcasting of a substantial victory to offset the impression created by the enormous strain to which the Japanese people are being subjected by the increasing taxation and the higher cost of living. For the past four months the Japanese forces in China made comparatively little headway, most of the time having been spent in preparing for the onslaught which is designed to bring about the capture of the Lunghai Railway and the union of the Japanese forces seeking to effect a junction from their present positions north and south of Hsuchowfu.
Populations in war time have to have victories unless their morale is to decrease. A struggle, wh resultless for months on end, is apt to prove irritating to the taxpayer who realizes the enormous amounts of money which are being spent and the fact that he has to find them out of his own pocket, and it is more than probable that this latest outburst was designed to take the japanese civilian mind for the moment off China, and, by preaching the possibility of war with Russia, raise an old bogey which has served the purpose of various Japanese Governments over a very long period of years.
There was a time when the chance of a conflict with the United States was used for the purpose of curdling the blood of the Japanese. That particular possibility has receded into the distance, but Russia is at Japan's very doorstep, and the likelihood of air-raids upon Japan from Vladivostok has been widely canvassed for years throughout the country. Taking the present situation as a whole it does not seem likely that either Japan or Russia want war at this particular time. The Japanese have as much as they can handle in China, for it is clear that they have been more than a little surprised at the strong resistance which the Chinese have been putting up, and the manner in which what was originally expected to be a short campaign has developed into one which it is commonly accepted will most likely last for a year or two. It is doubtful too whether Japan could undertake a prolonged fight with both China and Russia in view of the heavy strain to which her economic system is already being subjected for it is clear that large as the expenditure upon the campaign against China has been, one against Russia would be even more costly, not only because of the larger numbers to be involved, but because of the greater resistance the Russians would be able to offer and the larger possibilities of Japan having to fight a defensive war in the event of Russia deciding to take the initiative. War with Japan would mean that Russia, for the purpose of further embarrassing her enemy would provide China with greater quantities of supplies than she is at present doing. It would be in the interests of the Soviet to do so, even if China were unable to pay for them, for the more effective the Chinese resistance to Japan the larger the numbers of Japanese held here instead of being transferred to the battlefields of Manchoukuo or Siberia. At the moment according ta Japanese press reports, for what they are worth in such a matter as this, the Japanese government has some 600,000 men in China, There are said to be 350,000 picked troops ready to meet any menace in north Manchoukuo, obviously not sufficient to be sure of being able to deal with the Russian forces which in Siberia are said to total 40 divisions or about 880,000 an unknown naval strength at Vladivostok consisting mainly of submarines, and a substantial air-force within striking distance of the heart of Japan in addition to the military strength given above as immediately available for the Manchoukuo border, it is clear that Soviet Russia presents Japan with a difficult nut to crack, and provided peace were maintained in Europe it is more than likely that, should Japan embark upon any such adventure as her press adumbrates might be possible, Japan would have her fingers seriously, burned. On the other hand the situation from a Russian point of view is not too bright. The recent army purge may have removed many of the principle foch of discontent, but it does not necessarily mean that the Army would remain as docile as it is at the moment in the event of its being called upon to play that role in the defence of the country for which it exists. The danger of Stalin's control passing into the hands of the High Command upon the outbreak of war is one which should not be lightly discounted. Any such event might mean the destruction of the present Bolshevik Government and the substitution therefor of a military dictatorship, perhaps as near Fascism or Nazism as the present Russian system is away from it As has already been remarked, there has been a-plethora of incidents any one of which might have served as a spark to set off the explosion, but up to the present they have been allowed to pass, because neither nation at present wishes to embark upon a course of action the result of which is by no means certain. But there is no guarantee that the rising tide of discontent and alarm, which travellers from Japan report may not force the pace, for quern Jupiter yuit perdere, prius dementat, and there is no reason to believe that the maddening effect of conditions upon the people may lead their rulers to the desperate expedient of more war abroad to secure more peace at home. There can be little doubt about it; if Japan allows herself to become embroiled in a double war the chances of her eventual success will be very thin, and if she attains that desirable end the price she will have had to pay will be out of all proportion to the profits she may gain.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.