Alarmist Attitude Discounted by Bank Expert: Good Supplies at Hand in China seeciat, 10 THE "No. mena"
Shanghai, July 23. It is estimated that from' one-seventh to one-fifth of the rice crops Kiangsu and neighbouring provinces has been destroyed by the recent heat and drought, but experts do not foresee either serious curtailment of supplies or high prices, A certain amount of hoarding has been noted in Shanghai and elsewhere, Dut it has not been so much due to threatened shortage as to the propaganda of merchants and rumours Kept alive by alarmists.
With perspective based on years of experience, Mr. J. E. Baker, former Girector of field operations for_ the International Famine Relief Commission, and manager of the Bank of China Wheat Sales Department outlined the present situation yester-Gay and declared famine to be the Femotest possibility—in fact, he considered a real famine quite impossible, tone gathered as he talked. He dis-ussed the current situation, especial-it applied to Kiangsu, Anhwei, Chekiang and Kiansi provinces just before the Rain Dragon saw fit to unfold its wings and sprinkle the country-side with plenty of moisture.
With the memory of his own farm experience, Mr. Baker observed that "Chinese farmers are the cleverest farmers inthe world. They know we knew back home that no Grought can last forever. They've lost their second crop of rice, to be: sure, If they were on high. ground where irrigation has been impossible, but they are simply waiting for the drought to break. When it does. they'll work fast and hard.
Itwill be a swiftly growing crop, and they will have sustenance, though probably ttle or no cash surplus. That is, those who have been hit by. the drought will be in that predicament. simply because their land was too high for irrigation."
Then with certain and sure knowledge, Mr. Baker sketched the background of the present farm-problem. Mostly, he believes, those who have lost their rice crops will rely upon the generosity of neighbours, and the food problem will resolve li self into fan individual or local one, in which the services of organizations will be: unnecessary.
"The area affected by drought closely corresponds to that affected in 1981 by flood." he pointed out, "Then, the farmers in the lowlands the highlands and the lived off their neighbours. This time the fellows who were flooded out have been lucky, and 3 lucky chaps ling prepared opium throughout tne 18 the last flood are burned out now. Probably they wil simply return the call for assistance to. their nelgh= ours—meanwhie raising a crop. that will fulfil their simple needs. 'They Will have the necesalties of life, with hone of what are, t0 them, at' least, Blessing in Disguise However, while the highland farmfers are dependent "upon the lowland farmers, the latter will be in a far better position to lend aid than is at first 9 ent, it would seem, it Mr. Baker theory is at all cor: rect, and st appeare more than mere-logical According to him, the rice crop, sub-normal as it will more than ikely increase the purchasing power of the farm area in this section as a whole, 'Thus, what has been a minor calamity to some, has been distinct boon to others in the same locality, 'The assurance that a calamity may. take on the garb of Dlessing in this instance is, somewhat ambiguous until It is uunderstood—then' it emerges with reason to lend it substance, "If the rice crop, this year, were normal, it would be worth about six billion dollar roughly, speaking, on the Shanghai market," said Mi. Baker. "Let. us assume that the round figures recently furnished from an authoritative' source are correct enough to make clear this point. Let us assurme that the maximum loss of one-fifth of the crop. has been suffered by. farmers in this immediate area, That Te resents a cash loss of about one bition, two-hundred million dollars. Subtract that from the six billion dollar value of a average rice crop fon the present market of about $120 er ton of mice. and the current crop fe" still worth four billion, elghthundred million dollars—or in round Agures, again, 50 per cent. more than last year's. belter-than-average crop, which sold at something in, the elghbourhood of $40. per ton."
"Thus, because of the drought, the price of rice has risen high enough fo promise the fortunate farmer wie has managed to raise a crop, by night and day irrigation, some cash return for his labour, although he probably. will not receive the full benefit of a bumper price because of his increased cost of production, trans portation and other costs." At any rite, he will receive a higher percentage of profit than he did from last year's big crop—if he has a crop, and he has one if his farm is in the lowlands. "Farmers in' Fukien and Canton, and the southern rice-raising provinces have not been hard hit at all, They will benefit, and famine is, most improbable this year in Chin Wheat Suppli Queried on the problem of the coolie who must manage to buy rice an increased cost, Mr. Baker stated. hat big crops of wheat reported from, the north plus Increasing ease of transportation, has put. wheat on the Shanghai market at $225 par. bag {instead of the $3.00 "price. which prevailed last year. This, he believed would encourage a more diversified let on the part of the rice-eater who is. already consuming more wheat flour than in previous years.
Meanwhile, a second authority is of the opinion that this year China will have to import more rice than Jast year, and an equal quantity of wheat and flour it the supply is to be kept normal. 'This import, he believes, will be affected at a' cost of from'10 to 15 per cent, more than was paid last year, owing to the unusual climatic conditions in America, Canada and Russia which have re: duced crop expectations materially those countries, Thus, while economists and governments have sought to stabilize prices artificially because of hugo unwanted surpluses, Nature has at last stepped in and ordained freakish weather, droughts, and floods around the world, to settle naturally a problem that has knotted brows for years,
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.