Japan Over-Anxious to Demarcate Borders: Russia Insists Boundaries ced Peiping, Feb. 11.
During the past week the "local situation tas been pushed into the background owing to the alarming veporls from Hsinking and Dairen about increased Japanese-Soviet ten-slon. Diplomatic circles, however, do not appear to take these reports very seriously and are inclined to doubt that this tension will Jead to the outbreak of general hostilities between the two country Tt is pointed out that, in the frst: place, for some years now, almost regularly about this time this kind of a situation suddenly arises with its accompanying crop of rumours. In the second place, the elections in Japan are close at hand, and many people are Inclined to think that the sabre-ralfing of the Kwangtung army: Is merely a piece of electioneering propaganda, in order to impress the Japanese people with tke need for making ever greater sacrifices in the interests of national defence.
It Is true that there Is a large group among the younger Japanese army officers who are anxious to bring matters to an issue with Russia at the very earliest possible moment. 'Their argument is that every month the military position of Eastern Sterin grows stronger. 'This no doubt correct enough, but most observers doubt whether' the wiser heads in Japan are, prepared to start even 9 So-called "preventive" war, unless some very much stronger ' grounds arise, Equally unlikely is_it that Soviet Russia, with its European preoccupations' desires to be in" volved in an armed struggle in the Ear ast, If she can possibly avoid The present trouble started at two opposite ends of Manchoukuo in the west on the Outer Mongolian frontier, and in the east on that of Siberia. The Japanese have made much more noise about the latter, where at) Mishan 100 Manchoukuo troops mutiny fed and fled into Soviet territory. Yet it Is from the Mongolian side that the actual possibility of hostility threatens, "as the Japanese have despatched n force to the much-disputed Lake Buir area, for the avowed purpose of driving out the Mongolian frontier guards and "re-establishing" the frontier along the northern shore, 40 as to include the whole lake In Manchoukuo, 'The question at once arises: Will the Mongols resist? Russian circles ore appear to think that they will. 'A more important question in that case, is: What will Russia do? The Soviet Government has been strangely' silent on this point and so far has retrained from making any definite statement os to {ts intentions in case Ins ally, Outer Mongolia, {8 attacked.
Soviet persons who have been interrogated on this point refuse to give any definite answer. Tt would, however, seem to be fairly clear that, if tke Soviet Government regarded fan attack on Outer Mongolia as a casus belli, it would have said outright, On the other hand, its refusal to slate definitely that' tt will not help the Mongols ix probably due to fear that, if It did so, It would encourarte Japanese intransigeanee and also would offend and depress the Mongols.
Soviet circles appear to hold tke view that the Mongolian army Is well trained and the country so dim. cult, that the Mongols themselves will Be able to hold up-all smaller Manchoukuo and Japanese forces. Operations would then be likely to as~ sume the nature of a border vendetta, in which, one may suppose, the Rus slang would support their allies with arms and money. No doubt, in the unlikely eventuality of the Japanese undertaking major operations against Outer Mongolia and threatening Urga, Soviet Russia would be forced to intervene, both for the sake of prestige, and because the occupation of Outer Mongolia by the Japanese would be a deadly strategical threat {o Eastern Siberia, Short of that, one Is probably safe In assuming that Russia will not -make un overt move.
In_addition {0 the politleal_considerations, there are also serious technical reason at the back of all these Russo-Japanese disputes, which are not confined to the Manckoukuo-'Mongolian border, but which have been even more frequent and equally troublesome on the Manchoukuo-Siberian border.
Because both Outer Mongolia and Manchoukuo originally were portions of Chinese territory there are no def-historically fixed, state bound-daries between the twa Both territories tore themselves away; oF fo be correct have been torn awa irom China: Outer Mongolia by Soviet Russlaand Manchoukuo by Japan. And as neither of the leading Powers have recognized the Independence of the other's ally, no frontier demarca~ tion has ever taken place between the two "puppet states." The frontier betwoon Outer Mongolia and Manchoukuo to-day fs based on rather! shadowy boundary lines that used to] exist between certain Mongol tribes or "Banners." These have come down fo present times by custom and by' oral tradition and are not laid down in stale documents.
Before Manchoukuo had come into] existence the Japanese were Issuing] maps with the frontiers of tke proposed state very clearly defined. These Frontiers, however, merely represented Japanese wishes and were never admitted by Soviet Russia, The opposite views of the two countries on this question of frontier have led to never-ending disputes. In order to jeover up their eneroachments—troush. fof course, they were never admitted such—and In order to make a show of ood will. the Japanese repeatedly called on the Russians to agree to a demarcation of the whole of the frontiers between Manchouluo and. adjoining countries, tinting that 9 Feetifeation was urgently—needed. Their demand, It should be noted. fineluded not only the really doubtful Mongolian frontier, but also that of Siberia, This suggestion Soviet Russia refected for three reasons. Firstly, they] deny that their own frontier requires further demarcation, asserting that it hag been quite clearly defined in the old treaties between the empires of China and Russia, Secondly, Just ike Japan vis-a-vis Manchoukuo, they insist that Outer Mongolia is a completely free and independent. state, A Soclailist Republic allied to the USSR, and that they cannot, therefore, Interfere in any boundary deli-miration between Mongolia and Manchoukuo. Thirdly, to agree to a boundary commission on the Tines demanded by Japan would be tantomount to a recognition of the state fof Manchoukuo, which they have £0 far definitely refused to do.
On the other hand, the Russians recently proposed tke appointment of neutral commission to investigate the various border Incidents. This the Japanese, in their turn, refused to consider, on the not entirely inconsistent plea, that the Incidents are all due to in their eyes, the {ll-defined frontier, and that until this tas been properly demarcated to the satisfac Vion of both parties, no commission would be in a position to decide which side was really at fault.
Such being the attitude of two countries, it is dimMcult to see, how the frontier question is ever going to be settled peacefully.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.