The possibility that the proposed tripartite mutual defence pact proposed for Britain, France and Russia will be offset by the inclusion of either ome or both of Japan and Spain in the German-Italian military alliance is something over which there need be no great anxiety. Recent statements to the effect that Japan would not enter into commitments likely to involve her in a European war have merely reflected the fact that temporarily, at any rate, that school of moderate thought, which does not desire to antagonize the democracies against Japan, have gained the day, but it must always be remembered that there is a very powerful section in Japan which insists strongly upon that nation accepting all the responsibilities which have been accepted by Italy and Germany in the development of the anti-Komintern Pact. That this section has not gained the day up to the present does not mean that it never will, and the temptation to make hay in the Far East in the event of the sun of war shining in Europe may prove too strong for those who feel that Japanese commitments are already deep enough. That Japanese adherence to the German-Italian Military Alliance would have some value cannot for a moment be doubted, but it is modified by the fact that Japan is so heavily committed in China, that the end of her adventure here is not even now in sight. It has been suggested that the Japanese navy might be able to assist the dictator Powers in the Mediterrancan, but the problem of getting there unhampered, and so far away from its normal bases is one which would require the most careful consideration, and the solution of which may be attended with all manner of difficulties. Nevertheless Japan, closely joined with Germany and Italy in a military alliance, might have a serious annoyance value in the course of European hostilities, and might present a serious threat to the sea communications of the democracies, but it is not to be believed that this could not eventually be dealt with without too greatly endangering the naval position of the democracies. Obviously were Japan to enter into any such arrangement it would mean that immediately upon the outbreak of an European war she would be bound to attack Russia in Siberia, and the addition of what would be a major campaign to that which she is already prosecuting in China might very well prove more than she could adequately handle.
Obviously the only reply to the inclusion of Japan in the military understanding between Germany and Italy would be' the extension of British, French and Russian engagements to the Far East as well. It is still to be doubted whether Japan will take such a step, for it is quite clear that in view of the manner in which public opinion in the United States regards the recent behaviour of the dictator states, Japan herself, would be ranked with them and held in the same dislike. That, it is apparent from all that has happened, Japan has been sedulously endeavouring to avoid. Indeed the general attitude of Tokyo since the outbreak of hostilities in China has been to do everything possible to placate the United States, and to drive a wedge between that nation and those others with interests in the Far East, in the hope of reducing the forces which in certain circumstances Japan might be called upon to face. Thus the inspired Japanese press, while roundly criticising Great Britain, and France for their very proper action which they have taken in Kulahgsu, have carefully refrained from addressing the same reproaches to the United States, despite the fact that in this particular instance the Government of that! nation was the first emphatically to reject Japanese demands for the alteration of the status of the international settlement on that island. The same may be said with regard to the attitude of Washington vis-à-vis of Tokyo's demands in connection with the International Settlement of Shanghai, and the refusal of the Japanese to take umbrage at American procedure while severely attacking Britain and France is all part and parcel of the same policy of endeavouring to differentiate between the well-known Mr. Codlin, and the equally celebrated Mr. Short. Fortunately the American Government is under no illusions on this subject, for Japanese actions against- American interests in the Far East speak louder than all the -protestations of friendship and omissions to criticize which have Saat Japanese policy It would be foolish at this juncture to speculate upon what action the United States would take in the event of a European war developing into a world wide struggle which it would undoubtedly do, if hostilities followed upon Japanese adherence to the German-Italian Military Alliance. It is being borne in upon public opinion in the United States that in certain events it would be impossible for them to avoid being drawn into the general conflagration. If they were, there need be not the slightest doubt on which side their intervention would be, and it may defeat the ingenuity of the dictator states to devise ways and means of avoiding such a development which would prove catastrophic to their aims and intentions. With the conclusion of a British, French and Russian alliance the balance of power in Europe will swing definitely in their favour. The inclusion of Spain with the Rome-Berlin axis need not necessarily prove much of a factor influencing the situation one way or the other, for while Spain would thus present the Axis with additional bases, it has had its bellyfull of fighting and would not look with any enthusiasm on a new war. Nor would the accession of Japan do much to redress the balance which has swung against the totalitarian powers, for it is apparent that she has a pretty kettle of her own fish io fry, and may yet be some considerable time engaged in the embarrassing process of cooking. Thus too much importance should not be attached to any such development if it comes about. There should most definitely be nothing surprising about it, for it is the most logical thing which the Rome-Berlin-Tokyo axis could possibly devise to meet the rapidly changing situation. That it would not reduce the problems which the democracies would ultimately have to face has to be admitted, but even then in the long war which would result—for no one outside Rome and Berlin seem to believe in the possibility of the short, sharp, decisive strcke,—the economic effect upon Japan, which is already suffering to some degree because of her adventure in China, might very well prove disastrous, so disastrous that even the spoils of victory might not prove a sufficient return for all the wealth and lives which would have been spilt, The Flower Show The annual Spring flower show is being held today and tomorrow at the Shanghai Race Club and despite many preoccupations, political and otherwise, there does not appear any diminution in interest. Like the species which is the standby of all shows, the real horticulturist is also a hardy annual unaffected by any external circumstance other than rain, sunshine and favourable conditions to achieve that artistry in natural products which no book can ever cultivate unless the spirit exists within. Shanghai is singularly blessed with an abundance of flowers tended by a race so close to the soil that every man isa farmer in some degree. For a few dollars a month it is possible to de-cerate the house all the year round with a variety of flowers and plants which would represent a large outlay in many other parts of the world. True, not everybody is able to own his own plot of land and grow his own flowers. The development of Shanghai's huge apartment house population has crowded tens of thousands of people into big blocks of buildings where only the trees in the streets are evidence that the city is situated in one of the most fertile deltas of China, deriving its substance from millions of tons of rich, alluvial soil and sand washed down to the sea by the mighty Yangtze. And in most cases, modern apartments are provided with such little window ledge space that even the window box, the garden of the slums, is impossible, but compensation is found in the large quantities of cut flowers for sale, At this year's show flowers purchased on the street or at the many florists' shops are open for competitive exhibition, and this ought to help in filling that yearning for artistic arrangement even if they are grown by some unknown Chinese farmer in the hinterland of Shanghai and not in one's own front garden.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.