The twenty-five day onslaught by General Franco on Catalonia with the capture of Barcelona has undoubtedly brought big results to his forces, which have reached the sea and are within a short distance of thei inal objective. The Republican troops have fought a determined rearguard action, but t is apparent that the superiority of General Franco's armies in material, and trained üghting men, give them what is almost an overwhelming advantage, and the fact that the Republican troops have been able to stand up so well against the advance gives ise to much speculation as to what would have been the result of all this fighting if the policy of non-intervention had been as faithfully observed by those who sympathize with Republican Spain, as it has by the very zainest and active foreign supporters of the rebel leader. The Government troops retreating on Barcelona will it is reported eventually occupy a strongly fortified line within which it is hoped to offer as stubborn a defence of the city as has been the case with Madrid. In the meantime they have commenced offensives in Estremadura, Anda-lucia and the centre front, not only with the purpose of still further freeing Madrid, but, apparently also in the hope that success in those localities would have the effect of obliging General Franco to remove some of his troops from the Catalonian offensive for the purpose of reinforcement on the other fronts. Republican claims to have made some progress and to h ye actually got to within a short distance of Cordova are not admitted by the rebels, though that denial need not necessarily mean that the Government forces have made no progress whatever. Indeed with the insurgents' concentration of all their efforts upon the Catalonian campaign it is by no means unlikely that the Government troops may have achieved some success, though there is nothing to indicate that the counter-measures fave up to the present obliged General Franco to modify his original idea of pursuing the onslaught on Barcelona to the bitter end.
In reality both sides time. The Government command hopes to secure such striking successes that General Franco will be obliged to weaken his forces in Catalonia before he captures Barcelona, thereby relieving the present immense pressure, while General Franco is forcing the pace in the hope that a quick success will enable him to pay attention to the other fronts. In Barcelona the Government is making the last desperate efforts to ward off defeat. The whole population has been mobilized, and only the very young, or very old are free from the obligation of rendering assistance to the Government in one way or another. There is more than one reason for the desperation of the Catalans, Like the Basques they have consistently laid claim to, and have secured a certain degree of independence. It is true that the separatist tendencies have more recently been merged in the struggle of the social classes in Spain. Both the Catalans and the Basques threw in their lot with the Republican Government in its fight with General Franco and his Fascist allies. The Basques were defeated and their autonomy destroyed by General Franco during the summer and autumn of 1937, and t Catalans, realizing what has happened in that respect, are all the more determined to carry on the defence of their interests. They realize that with the victory of General Franco will go all that degree of independence which they have hitherto enjoyed, that their condition will be reduced to something similar to the Basques, and they are consequently involved in what is for them a life-and-death struggle. In the circumstances it would be rash to assume that even this part of the fighting will soon be ended, for whatever the Catalans may miss in the nature of material and superior equipment is to some extent balanced by the spirit in which they are fighting, and, if they can manage to hold General Franco outside Barcelona, the Spanish Civil War way not end quite so soon as he and his foreign supporters wish. Undoubtedly, up to the present his gamble has met with success, but to be complete an early reduction of Barcelona is necessary, in order that he may concentrate upon the subjugation of the large portion of Spain which still remains under Republican control.
With the ending of the Catalonian campaign General Franco would be in a much more favourable position than he is now. His lines would be considerably shortened, which means in itself an access of strength, with which he would probably be able to [embark upon a huge pincer-like movement in central and southern Spain designed primarily to squeeze out Madrid which has resisted him effectively ever since the outbreak of the war, and thus with a second shortening of his lines give him even more strength for his final attack on Valencia. It will be seen, therefore, that with each success the strength of General Franco becomes increased, but with the same shortening of the lines, so does that of the Republican Government, though not entirely to the same degree. Consequently unless some very great change comes over the situation there are great possibilities that the Republicans will be able to carry on the struggle for considerable time 1o come, and there is nothing at present in the situation to indicate that they have any other intention!
Thus while, if and when Barcelona falls, a very ut step will be taken towards the conclusion of the war, it will not have ended it, and there is every chance of the peril to Europe arising out of this war continuing for a long time to come. Recent trends, and especially those indicated as a result of Mr. Chamberlain's visit to Rome, show that it is practically impossible to proceed any further with his policy of apeasement until Italian ambitions in Spain are finally achieved. Certainly no material improvement in European conditions can be secured until this Spanish business is completely concluded. That may not be for some time to come, and it may quite easily prove to be the case that as the next few months pass the amount of suffering which has already been inflicted upon the Spaniards will be increased to a most painful extent. It is more than a pity that it has not been possible to bring an end to this struggle through mediation, That is entirely out of the question, for mediation means compromise, and General Franco, being in the position he is, with prospects of ultimately gaining everything will certainly not relinquish his prospects for a mere compromise.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.