A Long War; Armament Industry Strong concluding article on Germany's strength, culled from the "Financial News" of May 3, deals with her ability to wage a long war.
The conclusion is that, on any logical basis, indeed, it would be suicidal for the German. Government to embark upon war. After six months, the pace of her military effort would be likely to slacken, and after a year she would encounter most serious difficulties, with no chance of ultimáte success.
No matter how long one looks at the facts of Germany's food and Li Admittedly, her armament industry is very strong indeed. Capacity for arms production has been built up fast in the last five years. It is certainly true that at present Germany's capacity to produce arms is greater than ours, and it may be as great as ours and France's put together. The last census a year ago, which excluded Austria and Czecho-Slovakia, showed the existence of 3,740,000 workers in the iron and steel and metal and engineering industries. The number engaged in those industries in this country is -only 20% 2,570,000. German steel capacity is of the order of 25000000 tons, whereas British steel capacity is only about 14,500,000 tons. Until recently German aircraft production probably outnumbered British by three to two. Our aircraft production is now rising with a rapidity which is likely to shake the complacency of Marshal Goering. In the chemical industry, the German producer has probably some superiority. If Germany were able to obtain the raw materials to feed into this gigantic industrial war machine, indeed, she would certainly be in no way. inferior to Britain and France. Moreover, despite the apparent exposure of the Ruhr to air attack, the German war industry as a whole is probably no more vulnerable than ours. Anti-aircraft defence of key indusiry has been taken further In Germany than here. If the increasing industrial weight of Russia were not thrown against her in the East, and if the Allies were unable to buy from the United States—a nation with a more powerful industrial machine even than Germany's—and if she could supply herself with the necessary raw materials, Germany would be tremendously powerfully placed for a long war. But these are three very big "its."
Transport Problem Moreover, even in this field, Germany is suffering from some disibilities. The internal transport problem is admitted to be great. So extensive has been the concentration consumption has. been reached. The fourth is that there are doubts about the ability of the general industrial framework—transport, electric power, general industry—to stand the strain of war.
The conclusion must be that there are grave doubts about Germany's economic potential for a long war. If Germany could terrorize neighbouring neutrals into supplying essential raw materials on credit, and if those raw materials could. successfully run the Anglo-French blockade, the position might be different. If German submarines, moreover, were able to cut off British and French supplies, especially from the United States, the same condition might apply. But neither of these "its" is likely to come to pass. It is walth while to point out that at the beginning of this year Britain and France had 1800,00 tons of men-of-war, whereas the Italian and German navies combined totalled only 620,000 tons, and had 670,000 tons under construction, compared with the Italian and German 400,000 tons. It is, perhaps, also worth while to point out that ihe British Empire and French mercantile fleets total 23,600,000 tons, compared with 22,450,000 tons in 1914, while the German mercantile fleet is 4,230,000 tons, compared with 5,130,- 000 tons in 1914. Obviously, if Germany could destroy British and French shipping her position would be powerful for Britain and France are as dependent upon imports as she is. But there is no reason whatever to believe that she would be ble to do so. By the same token, if she cannot do that, she will be unable to obtain raw materials and will be unable to maintain her effort in the field.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.