That the situation regarding British relations with Japan is becoming increasingly grave is the only possible conclusion to be drawn from the telegrams which are published today, and for the moment there does not appear to be very much chance of matters improving. In Kulangsu not only is communication with Amoy cut off, but it is now reported that the Japanese, have established a blockade which in fact amounts to a siege, the entry of firewood, charcoal and vegetables into the island being banned. That does not appear to have taken place in Tientsin, though it is reported that suppliers of foodstuffs are reluctant to bring them into the two concessions for fear of being held to have given the British and French assistance. Kulangsu is consequently faced with what amounts to a siege in order, according to the Japanese spokesman to "bring the Kulangsu Municipal Council to their senses," while in Tientsin the possibility of the two Concessions ultimately being deprived of foodstuffs, or at least fresh foodstuffs, is something which cannot be ignored. What is of even more seriousness is the fact that the Japanese from their original demand for the surrender of the four Chinese suspected of murder have broadened their requirements to an extent which cuts to the roots the very existence of the Concessions as British and French, and upon these extended demands seek an unconditional surrender. Despite reports to the contrary the State Department in Washington flatly denies that the United States Government had offered to mediate in the Tientsin dispute. This is most probably the case, for no nation would care to intervene unless it saw some chance of bringing about a readjustment, which in all the circumstances does not yet appear likely. Indeed mediation by the United States may have its own attendant difficulties, for it is clearly recognized that, while Great Britain and France are at present singled out for these unpleasant attentions, the probability of their ultimately being levelled against the United States as well as other nations not yet affected has always to be borne in mind.
Even if the United States consented to mediate there is very little likelihood that the Japanese Government in its present temper would be prepared to listen, for while scrupulous care has been taken to avoid giving too much provocation to America, it is not to be believed that Tokyo would be prepared to abandon schemes which are not the outcome of recent events, but the result of long months of planning. It must be emphasized that what is happening now in Tientsin, and Kulangsu has been expected for months past, as forming a part of the general Japanese scheme of "Asia for the Asiatics," the total elimination of third party foreign neutrals from China, and the complete destruction of their trade. The singling out of Great Britain for first treatment, and the inclusion of France because of the fact that the French Concession being adjacent to the British the blockade could not have been made complete without the inclusion of the former, indicates a desire to attack the question piecemeal. Should the Japanese be able to prevail in Tientsin there are other portions of China where the same tactics may confidently be expected to be employed, and it is very obviously the Japanese hope that by following such tactics it may be possible to achieve what would be impossible were a general assault on all foreign interests in China embarked upon. Parallel action having already been decided upon by Great Britain, France and the United States it is naturally in Japanese interests that this should be broken up at the earliest possible moment. Should it be, the lot of the foreigner in the Far East will indeed be lamentable, but there is no indication that the Japanese will succeed, or that in the ultimate result the United States will stand aloof from developments which must eventually harm the interests of their own nationals. The attempt to drive a wedge between Britain and France on the one hand, and the United States on the other was only to be expected, put such tactics will deceive no one, and, un-j less some very astonishing change comes over the situation, is without the remotest chance of succeeding.
Those who are inclined to take a pessimistic view of the situation should be made to realize that such an outlook, while comprehensible, is not justified. This new struggle is only just beginning, and this present offensive against British interests is not the first, and will, in all probability, not be the last before this China Incident comes to a conclusion. Nor are those who impatiently demand early retaliatory action by the British Government entirely wise. It is admitted that Great Britain, France and the United States have in their hands weapons of the strongest possible nature, capable of inflicting more economic harm upon Japan than she can ever do to the interests of third party neutrals in China. They are weapons of such potentiality that the greatest possible care will be required in their utilization, but it is obvious that a country the largest portion of whose trade is with those three Powers runs serious risk of grave damage should her conduct lead them to deal with her in a spot where she is most vulnerable. History has time and time again proved that Great Britain can be long suffering, but it has also shown that it does not forget, and if the British Government in dealing with the situation acts somewhat more slowly than some people would like, it must be remembered that of the many issues in which Great Britain is involved the solution is not yet. That may have to come in Great Britain's own time, but when it does come the reckoning will be complete, Whether in war,'or in peace, it must be remembered that it is the last victory which counts, and the inconveniences of the moment have to be endured with the assurance that the outcome will be one which every Briton, nay every third party Power interested in China wishes. The future should be awaited then with that calmness and confidence which is even now being displayed in Tientsin and Kulangsu. There is not the slightest occasion for panic. That indeed would be harmful, but the long view suggests that no matter what inconveniences may have to be put up with now and in the near future, the outcome can never be in doubt.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.