In November President Roosevelt's policies ce a nation-wide test. The "mid term" elections take place in which the whole of the House of Representatives and one third of the Senate must be chosen. It h frequently happened in the past that owing to a popular reaction against his policies a President has found that during the last two years of his occupancy of the White House the legislative branch of the Government is in control of the opposite pi The result a complete deadlock. The President can only carry out those policies with which the opposition agree, The Republicans, sensing that the Presidents popularity is waning, are strengthening their battle lines for the coming struggle. They have no hope of securing an outright majority, but they are h to increase their membership to such extent that together with the votes dise Democrats they will be a controlling influence upon legislation In 1940 when the Presidential election takes place one faction or the other of the Democratic party will control the whole party and the rebuffs which the Republicans have helped administer to a Democratic President will be of little conseque! The truth of the ma sent time the Democratic party ful and have so great a hold upon entry that they it with both its Government and its The November elections will show an party will be able to the opposition party. me recently conducted a of poll on this question of the mid term elections. Instead of attempting to ure the opinions of a cross-section of the voters it requested the opinion of a large number of political writers. Each of these conducted within his own mind a mental tes poll as part of his daily profession and the net ult, it is contended, is an extremely accurate forecast of what will happen. As a cross-check the magazine sought the opinion e politicians from each party.
This picked ju: shed how the seats was in the House would be divided after the November elections. At present there are only 90 Republicans in the House to 332 Democrats and 13 members independent of either ôf the two major parties. The political correspondents predicted that the Republicans would gain 61 seats, the politicians 57 seats (taking the average of the replies). This appear to be very little, but it is due fed above to the fact that the Republis have not established their right to be as the opposition part; 0 members they may, by vigorous esta the idea among all those are opposed to the policies at present being carried out in the country that the best way to show that opposition is to vote Republican. At present such a feeling does not endent polls of popular te that about three out of every five people approve of President Roosevelt an individual. When test polls, however, are taken of specific policies more people dis-app than approve. In other words the perso f the President is more popular than the polloi the President. Even if all who disapproved of him voted Republican they (the Republicans) would still only have proportionately about 170 seats. If all who were opposed to Administration policies voted Republican the total would be higher. s s The select jury having decided that the Republicans would only win about 60 seats were then asked what factors played the biggest part in changing the opinions of the electorate. Was it the current economic recession? Was it the normal "swing of the pendulum" which makes people Administration they have and w change for the sake of change? Was it due to divisions in the Democratic leadership, to foreign policy or to other causes?
Both correspondents and politicians overwhelmingly selected the recession as the most important factor while the factor which wa: felt to have leas% importance was foreign policy.
As well as looking at the composition of the next House from the point of view of party labels, it should be looked at from the point of view of whether those bearing the Democratic label will or will not support the President. The recession and other factors may not only increase the number of Republicans but may also increase the number of rebel Democrats. If this leads to a series of defeats for the President during his.) iwo years of office and if in administering those defeats the Republican minority appear to be playing an important part, the results of 1940 when Republicans and Democrats face each other in a Presidential election may justify current Republican optimism It does not require an elaborate test poll to conclude that the recession is the factor which weighs most heavily with the electorate today. The Republican party were defeated by the 1929 depression. They claimed credit for "prosperity" so could not complain when they were held responsible for the economic crash. The Democratje policy may _be defeated in 1940 by the 1938 depression.
They claimed credit for recovery—'don't let anyone deceive you, we planned it that way," said the President—and are now being made to bear the onus of the recession. The success or failure of the President's programme to end the recession, announced on April 14, will therefore have far reaching consequences.
The President had to show first why the heavy Government spending of the past had. led not to prosperity but another depression and prove that spending this time would definitely lead to recovery. He had also to outline his spending plans.
The second task was the easier of the two.
The President divided it into three sections, "the three bullets," as he called them, with which he intended to drive off the recession.
These three bullets were first direct relief to the unemployed in the form of work, secondly an expansion of credit facilities through the R.F.C. and through increasing the reserves of the banks and thirdly a revival of public works. in other words of pump-priming.
The President asked for an appropriation of $1,250,000,000 for work relief plus smaller amounts. for the Farm Security Administration, the National Youth Administration and the Civilian Conservation Corps, making a relief total of $1,550,000,000. This money will not be available before July 1 when the next fiscal year begins, It is an increase over previous estimates for that year which had been based on an optimistic view of the tutu The only way this increase could have been avoided would have been to substitute direct cash relief for Government found jobs, as suggested earlier this year by Secretary Roper.
Increased borrowing facilities are not of great importance because the difficulty has never been lack of funds to borrow but lack of satisfactory borrowers. The R.F.C. has been authorized to lend $1,500,000,000 to business, including railways and utilities. Bank reserves ha been increased by $1,400,000,000 through releasing the sterilized gold. This is the gold bought up by the Government with borrowed money when it feared inflation. This gold is now being used as cash to buy back Government bonds from the banks and provide a basis for credit, The reduction of Federal Reserve requirements added another $750,000,000 to bank reserves. On the base of ence: s reserves of $4,000,000,000 could be erected a credit structure of nearly $40,000,000,000 which sounds more impressive than it should. A mere increase in the sìze of the reserve does nothing to stimulate borrowing.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.