Sept, 28.
With the approaching close of the Soviet-German conquest of Poland, and the lull on the western front, to which Germany appears to be hurrying reinforcements, the comings, and goings of diplomatic represent~ tives of such countries as Esthonia, Turkey and the Reich to Moscow are necessarily attracting attention. This all goes to prove that the centre of importance has been transferred from Berlin -to the Russian ca~ pital, and that M, Josef Stalin is, at any rate for the moment, filling the prominent role, in Europe, which formerly was played by Herr Hitler, It would certainly appear that, far as Esthonia is concerned, sooner, or later, @ fiat will be issued from the Rus sian Berchtesgaden which may seriously affect the future of that little country, and, if it does not entirely lose its independence, it may nevertheless find itself subject to some form of control which it feared from Germany, and is now likely to receive from Russia, The reports that Russia will demand free zones in Esthonian ports and the right to establish garrisons in them for the protection of Russian interests, if it means anything at all, surely indicates that the Kremlin is taking steps to avert whatever moves in that direction Germany may have contem~ plated in the past, and may still be holding in abeyance. Russia is undoubtedly seeking to protect her own interests in Esthonia by protecting her against German aggression, which Moscow always considered a possi~ bility never to be lost sight of. Whether ultimately Lithuania will follow the same fate remains to be seen, but if Russia is secking to secure the restoration of her coast line on the Baltic Sea as it existed before the last war it need be no occasion' for surprise. Countries are always apt to seck to revise divisions which have been made at their expense, and not all the doctrine of self-determination of nations, or peoples can deny that fact. That this may give worry to the Germans goes almost without saying, for if developments do proceed along these lines the Reich will be making but another instalment on the price she is paying for Russian assistance in Poland, The visit of the Turkish Minister for Foreign Affairs to Moscow is another important development. The friendship between Turkey, and Russia is of long standing, and the former, having entered into definitely friendly relations with Britain and France, against whom, at any rate temporarily, Russian policy is directed, may be Subjected to pressure to modify those as~ surances of support which the Turkish Government gave only a few weeks back. On the other hand the discussions may be for the purpose of securing Turkish support for any policy of resistance which Russia may decide to offer to any German attempt to expand into the Balkans. That Herr von Ribbentrop, the Reich Foreign Minister is going to Moscow for the purpose of endeavouring to contract a formal alliance be~ tween Germany and Russia,—it is noteworthy that German diplomats are doing the visiting now,—is well within the bounds of probability. "As it has been seen, there was something more than an anti-aggression pact arrived at the last time Herr von Ribbentrop went to Moscow, and there is now the probability that Herr Hitler is in a great hurry to obtain a formal alliance in order to strengthen his own position when he makes the long-expected appeal for peace based upon the situation as it now exists in Poland. If that is indeed his desire, then it may be taken for granted that he will offer no serious resistance to Russian designs so far us Esthonia is concerned, while what else he will have to give up in order to obtain his way remains to be seen. Herr Hitler seems to be getting in the same position as a desperate borrower when he falls into the clutches of an insatiable moneylender, and it is quite apparent that, the more he wants, the higher will be the price of the accommodation afforded him. Of course were he to obtain a formal alliance with Russia he would have considerably strengthened his position vis-i-vis of the Alllies, for the threat of the extension of the present struggle into other possible theatres of war would be a grave one.
But there is a vast distance between securing an alliance with Russia and persuade j ins her to Right for Germany. M. may be playing the skilful game of a bold opportunist, but he is hardly likely to enter into a struggle which might imperil his own Position domestically without prospects of rewards at least commensurate with the [risks he would be taking. Those Germany thas not within her power to offer, and nan extension of the war to other places where the Allies might be open to attack, Russia would have to fight, and fight hard for whatever she might hope to gain. There is another important point which must not be overlooked. If it is true that because of jer own state, Russia at peace will be unable to make any very substantial contri-mately so is apparent, and there is conse- upon their neutrality, but they have little bution to Germany's needs for raw materials putting an end to the Hitlerian regime will be able to do so if she found herself engaged in war? A Russia at peace might be able to render some assistance to Germany in the manner best calculated to be of real value Russia at war would need all her supplies for herself, On those grounds it would seem that Herr Hitler will defeat himself if indeed he succeeds in obtaining the desired alliance and persuades the Kremlin to join him in a freebooting war. The whole weakness of Herr Hitler's position has been shown ever since hostilities began, for he has apparently convinced himself that the assistance of others is necessary to carry out what at one time he believed ihe could do for himself. An alliance with Russia would prima facie place him in a very strong position when he comes to announcing his terms for peace. The possibilities of such a union, however, have at no time been minimized, if he succeeds in his negotiations with Moscow, the situation will not be very radically changed, and there is every prospect that any overtures for peace which he may care to make will be as firmly rejected in the face of a: Russo~ German alliance as they would "be In Its
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.