The result of the by-election in the Holderness Division of Yorkshire, made necessary by the death of Sir Servington Savery, has resulted in retention of the seat by the National Government, despite the fact that the conservative vote was split by the entrance of an Independent Conservative into the fight together with Liberal and Labour contestants. The figures which have been published of the voting are interesting. The poll itself was larger than at the last election, both the Labour and Liberal candidates resistering increases, while the National and independent Conservative vote combined uso represented an increase, though some thousand voters apparently did not approve of the policy followed by Mr. Chamberlain. The total poll was 45,064 as compared with 41,483 at the last election, and that increase seems to have been about equally "shared between the three political creeds, accepting, of course, that had there been no independent Conservative candidate he voters would have supported the official entrant. The latter, nevertheless, won the eat with a comfortable margin of over six thousand votes, though the combined official opposition of Liberal and Labour actually polled more votes than the successful candidate. The total combined Conservative poll still represented a majority over its opponents. Study of the figures may not prove particularly comforting to the Prime Minister, for they show that there is a very substantial proportion of his supporters who till refuse to support his policy and are even row bitterly critical of his actions during ind since the Czechoslovak crisis. That (bout one-quarter of the Conservatives who voted at Holderness, recorded their suffrages gainst him is an uncomfortable fact, especi-lly if it in any way adequately represents he manner in which the party is divided throughout the rest of the United Kingdom. f indeed this does represent the real facts of the situation, then Mr. Chamberlain will] probably be in no hurry for a general elec-jon until he is convinced that he commands greater support within his party than this ay-election would seem to indicate.
There are signs, however, that some of his critics are being gradually won over, The recent attempt by a section of the Governnent's supporters to create a new party, alled. "The One-Hundred Thousand" deigned to put more ginger into the policy of he National Government proved and egregious failure. It died almost stillborn, and while there are endeavours still being made resuscitate it, there seems to be little chance of the movement ever being a suc-less. That may be for a number of reasons. Sir John Simon claims that there is an increasing feeling throughout the country that che prospects of peace are becoming more ecure. There are many who will undoubted-y believe that Sir John is indulging in a little too much optimism, though it cannot denied that certain factors operating in favour of peace are stronger today than they rave been for a very Icng time past. There s the knowledge that Britain is growing stronger every day. There is the knowledge chat Britons are prepared to shoulder every burden necessary to make themselves secure, while the close and warm understanding between Great Britain and France, and good elations with the United States, together with the prospect of the conflict in Spain soming to an early termination all contribute o the feeling of greater security than has seen the case for all too long. The Chan-zeller of the Exchequer is probably correct in insisting that another important factor is ihe determination with-which Mr. Chamber lain has pursued his policy of seeking to effect a better understanding with other states no matter what form their government may take, and to the coolness and firmness vith which he has held to his course during recent months of anxiety. That Great Britain is infinitely stronger now than she was but a few months ago is due entirely to the determination of the man who succeeded in staving off war last September. The four and a half months which have passed since then have enabled Great Britain to put herself in a better position of defence than she would have been in had hostilities broken out then, Weaknesses in the system have been discovered and practically entirely removed; they should be totally eliminated within a very short time now, and no matter how roundly Mr. Chamberlain may be condemned by critics who would have followed what they contend is a stronger policy the fact remains that he has contributed not only largely to the present feeling of security, but also to the confidence with which Great Britain can now contemplate the possibility of war.
How far that had any influence upon the minds of the voters in the Holderness Division is not clear at this distance. Quite likely it had very little, for feelings such as those to which Sir John refers are apt to be much too intangible for use as electioneering arguments. Incidentally it may be readily inferred that the election was fought out on what happened last year rather than upon the improved prospects which have recently been brought about. It may take a long time to bring about that general conviction, which Mr. Chamberlain and his immediate supporters hold, that it is possible to be friendly with those states with whom relations are not so cordial as could be desired, but a fully armed BritZin should find the task of improving international relations in this respect much easier now than would have been the case when Mr. Chamberlain had to make his fateful decisions last year. Those who profess to find in the opposition which has been demonstrated against the Prime Minister signs of weakness in the general political structure of Great Britain, should give their impressions no undue weight. The British, like the French, reserve to themselves the right to differ greatly on political matters, but in the face of danger they coalesce into one body for mutual defence. There is every likelihood that if Mr. Chamberlain went to the country now he would find himself returned to power because of the reluctance of the British voter to swap horses when facing crises which may be expected in the near future, If he defers doing so until next October, the chances of retaining power may be considerably increased, especially if in the interim he either achieves some success for his appeasement policy, or in the face of political aggression shows just that same degree of firmness as that with which he has so resolutely stuck to his guns despite the fierceness of his cri and the rebellion of some of his supporters.
Fighting Near Shanghai The measures being taken by the Japanese north of the Soochow Creek and the Japanese Consul-General's request to the Council for additional precautions during the Chinese New Year holiday season, appear to lend weight to the persistent reports that Chinese guerillas have been very active in this vicinity recently and that the Japanese expect further trouble in the near future. Within the last two days reports have been received of a successful Chinese raid on Minghong, and a less successful attack in the neighbourhood of Kiangwan. Neither of these reports could be confirmed, and they may have been the inventions of rumour-mongers who take every opportunity to benefit from the tense situation. There is better support for the report of an attack made on Thursday night and early yesterday morning in the Hungjao area, as foreign residents were awakened more than once during the night by the zip of bullets past their windows. None of these three raids can be called of military importance, except for the psychological effect they must have upon individual Japanese troops. In the raid in the Kiangwan area it is reported that the Japanese split the guerillas into two parts, and drove one pert back upon Chapei. This would account for the sounds of rifle fire heard by many residents coming from somewhere in that direction. The value of these spasmodic attacks by guerillas upon an internationally-populated area can be doubted, except insofar as they may foster the confidence of Chinese in danger f wavering in their allegiance. In the mean-ume it must be inevitable that the deprivations uffered by the peasants and farmers round Zhonchai at the hands of the guerillas will have a harmful effect—perhaps harmful enough to make the raids a definite disservice to the tornese cause.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.