Further analysis of the unemployment returns sheds more light on industrial changes since last year. Thus, unemployment among insured persons increased by 10 per cent. or more between December, 1937, and December, 1938, in iron ore and ironstone mining, in pig-iron production and steel smelting, and in tin-plate manufacture. Increases between 5 per cent. and 10 per cent. were registered in the cases of coke ovens, tools and cutlery, bolts, nuts and screws, cotton textiles and rayon yarn manufacture. Branches of activity showing decreases in unemployment during the past year include the following: Stone and slate quarrying, explosives, motors and aircraft, shipbuilding and repairing, electric cable and apparatus, woollen and worsted, linen, jute, hemp, hosiery, lace, carpets, leather tanning, tailoring and the clothing trades, except dressmaking, drink and tobacco, building and contracting (mainly because the weather was unfavourable in 1937), linoleum, musical instruments and local Government service.
Although these figures provide only a rough guide to industrial changes, their implications are clear. There has been a severe shrinkage of activity in the iron and steel and some of the related trades during the past year. In 1937 these trades were producing heavily for stock; the adjustment of supplies to demand has, therefore, involved a drastic cut in output. In December the demand for steel sank to the lowest level for years, because, in view of the price reductions at the beginning of this year, consumers naturally only took delivery of such materials as they actually required in that month.
The industries in which unemployment in December was actually smaller than a year earlier include those with a heavy stake in rearmament and a surprisingly large number of consumption goods, especially textiles, The retail trade returns for December, which showed an increase of 1.9 per cent. in the average daily value of sales compared with a year earlier, confirmed the improvement in consumption goods trades revealed by the unemployment figures. In the great majority of trades, however, the proportion of insured persons unemployed rose by 1 to 5 per cent. during the past year. cline in the volume of imports and exports was much less marked than the drop in their value. Thus, between the last quarters of 1937 and 1938, the volume of imports and exports fell by 12 per cent. and 7 per cent. respectively. But while the increase in the volume of imports between the third and fourth quarters last year was slightly less than the usual seasons movement, the rise in the volume of domestic exports w: twice as heavy as usual, which is encouraging. The comparatively poor showing of imports, however, partly due to the cautious buying policy of consumers during a period of falling prices.
If recovery in the United States continues, and if the movement is strong enough to arrest the fall in the prices of raw materials and semifinished goods, which largely make up our imports, purchases will probably increase, while the consequent improvement in the purchasing power of overseas countries should stimulate our exports. Lately, however, the volume of new business secured by our export industries has been rather disappointing; and in the immediate future shipments are likely fall rather than to rise.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.