Amongst the large number of important points made by Lord Halifax, British Secretary for Foreign Affairs, in his speech at Hull on Friday, surely nothing could have been more impressive than his reference to international trade. He characterized as untrue Herr Hitler's statement that the Great War was waged to exclude Germany from world trade. He pointed out that Germany was England's best customer before the War and that no two countries are bound more closely together by commercial and financial partnership. Why should Great Britain then Gr now desire to exclude Germany from world trade? "We never believed in England that competition is exclusive," he said, "We believe that in days of prosperity and peace it promotes trade all round." Referring to Der Fuehrer's prediction that a long period of peace was ahead, he said "No one hopes more devotedly than I do that this prediction will be fulfilled. It will give the world a real assurance of peace, trade will revive, and economic development will be possible, whereby all will benefit. It will leave the achievements of the last century far behind." A review of what has happened during the two decades which have elapsed since the conclusion of the Great War justifies the contention that Lord Halifax is correct. Apart from international political considerations, the most potent factor tending towards a new war has been economic. Arising out of a rapidly developed, ted nationalism, political at first in ation, but economic in its later developments, the present economic struggle is just as likely to be productive of hostilities as any other of the important factors at present operating. It has led on the one hand to the endeavour to establish national autarchies, and on the other towards attempts to establish economic blocs, the sole purpose of which is to exclude competition. With regard to the former some success has already been secured, but it is of such a quality as to prove that, short of a miracle, it can never be brought to completion, that while a country may be able to achieve a very considerable degree of self-sufficiency, there is nothing to show that it can ever be complete.
If it could, then a nation would have no need for exports, without which Herr Hitler claims Germany must die, for being independent of imports, there would be no need for exports with which to finance them. It is obvious that no nation can hope to live merely by doing each other's washing, and that international trade is an imperative necessity for domestic well being. The alternative to autarchy is the establishment of economic blocs, such as Germany is obviously seeking to bring about in Europe, and Japan in the Far East. Both have about them certain qualities of exclusiveness, and ihe same potentialities for failure. There is in the idea of the economic bloc merely a form of extended trade nationalism, and it is clear that those responsible for the establishment of such blocs will eventually realize that they in their turn will require to take part in international trade, in which, if the system is to be successful, there is no room for exclusiveness. But there is in reality no real intention of establishing a balanced exclusiveness. Economic blocs can no more retreat within themselves than can those nations which seek to be autarchic.
They have sooner or later to come back to the open field. That is eminently the case with Japan. That country may seek to make of China the best source for raw products and a good outlet for her finished goods, but confinement to the market thus established without freedom to carry on trade with the rest of the world would in fact not only not serve Japan's purpose but actually operate against it. Ultimate retaliation against Japan, should she insist upon closing the Open Door would make that clear, for while Japan is already suffering from the limitation of her exports of her own free will, the effect of the closing of existing markets to her, by those whose interests she is at present infringing would have upon her a perfectly disastrous effect.
If it is true that without export trade Germany and Great Britain must die, it is infinitely truer of Japan, still true of the Japan-Manchoukuo-China economic bloc which is the present objective of the Japanese. The achievement of her present Asiatic policy may represent a slower process of suicide, but the end is nevertheless certain.
Probably one of the best means of assuring the peace of the world would be to straighten out its economic difficulties. That was recognized at the time M. van Zeeland, former Belgian Prime Minister, was asked to make his report on the subject. It is a matter of regret that that important document did not lead to effective discussion, for there can be no gainsaying it that, imposing as political considerations may seem to be at the moment, economic factors are no less important. That is evidenced by the fact that despite the tension at present prevailing in Europe, efforts are being made by business representatives of both Germany and Great Britain to reach some settlement of the trade war which is at present being waged between the two countries. If political appeasement is necessary, so also is the creation of a better economic understanding between the various nations of the world, and if such can be brought about in the case of Germany and Great Britain, there should be no real reason why a universal understanding should also not be reached. It is imperative that it should be, for the idea of the world being divided into a number of exclusive economic blocs is by no means a pleasing one. The conclusion of the Anglo-American Trade Agreement is an excellent example of what can be done in the nature of mutual adjustments between trading countries. The conclusion of a similar understanding embracing all the democracies to the exclusion of autarchic, authoritarian states would make an imposing division of the world's trade, and one in which the democracies would not suffer the worst. It may be considered an extravagant idea and be dismissed as such, but at times it is necessary to take arguments to extremes to discover their fallacy. That extreme, is not improbable in the present temper of the world, for it would merely tend to exaggera ate present day exaggerated nationalisms, which for the good of the world must be eradicated. Japan must export to live. China does not now and will not for a very long time to come offer anything in the nature of a market big enough to offset the disadvantages which must accrue to Japan from the closing of the Open Door. Self-sufficiency no matter how modified is doomed to fail.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.