The seizure of Waichow Island in the Gulf of Tongking, and about thirty miles south of Pakhoi, on January 31, was the first proof Of the invasion of those waters by the Japanese, end to some extent might have been regarded as notice of Japanese intentions with regard to Hainan. With Waichow Island as a base the Japanese were perfectly well able to command the northern end of the Gulf of Tongking, and for this reason it is contended that the occupation of Hainan Island is in fact unnecessary from a naval point of view. At a time when various military preparations on the European continent suggest the proximity of another crisis, Japan has seized the opportunity to secure this important strategic point, regardless of her solemn commitments to France as recorded in the Franco-Japanese exchange of notes in 1907. It is understood that the British and French governments are instructing their Ambassadors in Tokyo to enquire of the Japanese Government the reasons for, character and duration of the occupation, and it is upon the reply received that their future policy regarding the matter will be decided. The terms of the Franco-Japanese Notes of 1907 do not alone cover the matter. Since last June the Japanese have on several occasions given hints that at some time or other they might, for military reasons have to consider landing on Hainan, but have always accompanied those hints with the assurance that no permanent occupation is intended. The number of assurances which Japan has given with regard to the China incident are legion, and the total of those which have unto the present not been honoured is similar in number. It is consequently to be anticipated that this "temporary" occupation of Hainan Island will have about it that degree of permanency which will be wholly unacceptable to either Great Britain or France, end it may be accepted as just an-Other of those incidents which have been piling up during these last eighteen months and contributing to the deterioration of a situation which is already unfortunate.
The attitude of the Japanese press in the matter is as significant as it is interesting. The "Kokumin Shimbun" trots out the threadbare argument of the 1907 agreement being based upon the Nine Power Pact, and that as that document virtually colonized China it was not adaptable to the present situation in East Asia from a moral point of view. The idea of any Japanese journal seeking to defend anything which Japan has done or is doing from a moral point of view is decidedly refreshing, though the rest of the contention follows lines which are becoming all too familiar. The same journal after referring to the geographical relationship between Hainan Island and Singapore states that the Japanese landing "is giving a final chance to Great Britain for her reconsideration of the Japanese intention to establish peace in East Asia." If this means anything at all it must surely mean that in the newspaper's view Japan intends permanently to occupy the island interposing what may ultimately become a fortified post between Singapore and Hongkong, and affording a suitable base from which to reach the former. That may not be the intention of the Japanese Government at the moment, but there is every possibility that such a situation may develope, for all statements regarding the absence of any desire to avoid territorial acquisition in China, are completely nullified by the fact that what Japan designs for China is a subjection which is tantamount to it. It is but natural, in the circumstances, that Great Britain should be showing considerable interest in the matter. If at any time there were people in Whitehall who believed that Japan would honour her assurances concerning the respect she would pay to the interests and rights of third party neutrals, they must surely have disappeared by now. The same process must also have taken place in France, who sees her interests seriously threatened by the dominating influence Japan would be able to wield over Indo-China by what would practically mean naval control of that colony's coastline from an easily accessible island.
What reply Japan will make to the representations which are to be made remains to be seen. Judging from all that has happened in the past Britain and France will be informed that the reasons for the landing were military, and the character purely temporary, while the additional assurance will in all probability be given that Japanese forces will be withdrawn as soon as peace has been brought to China. It is most probable that neither Whitehall nor the Quai d'Orsay will be satisfied by this. They will be more than usually credulous if they are, but in the meantime it does not look as though they, with their preoccupations closer at home, will be able to do much about it in the comparatively near future. But it is a comforting thought that British and French policies are long-sighted, that ultimately there will have to be a settlement of all the questions which are being raised by Japan's behaviour, and that when that time comes they will be speaking with that authority in the Far East of which they are at present temporarily deprived. There is yet one further aspect of the matter which has to be borne in mind. Since the fall of Hankow and Canton there has been comparatively little new in Japan's campaign in China. The landing on Hainan may be regarded as a useful device to maintain the interest of the Japanese public in a war which is beginning to pall upon them. It is for that reason that the Japanese press has been "playing it up." Yet it is nothing in the nature of a military or naval triumph, for it is apparent that the place was very lightly held by the Chinese, who were not present in sufficient strength to offer anything in the nature of resistance, a view which is corroborated by the reports of the Japanese themselves. It was not even necessary that the island should have been taken, for as it has already been pointed out, Japan after the seizure of Waichow Island was in a position completely to control the northern portion of the Gulf of Tongking, through which it was alleged supplies were still reaching the Chinese forces, and if the Japanese navy are unable to estabolish a complete blockade of that portion of the coast, the mere occupation of Hainan will render them no particular assistance in this respect.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.