Inspire of all the excitement of the press in Tokyo, it is difficul to believe that the Japanese Government will run the risk of a major incident in the Pacific by attempting to prevent the tankers which are now carrying American oil to Russia from reaching their destination. There are no signs that either the Soviet Govern. ment or the United States intends to divert these vessels, The campaign of intimidation which has been waged by the newspapers in Tokyo has failed of its purpose, and it now remains to be seen whether there will be any official action against the tankers. or whether the Japanese, having registered their protest, will not turn to their Axis partners and say that they have done everything that might reasonably be expected. It should not be forgotten that Japan has a treaty of neutrality with Soviet Russia, and it is believed that her intention to abide by this treaty has been recently reaffirmed, in response to a request from Moscow, The interception of supplies needed b: Soviet Russia in her war against Germany woul undoubtedly be interpreted as a breach of this treaty, while any interference with American ships would cause such repercussions in the United States that it would be a most foolhardy act. Susceptibilities over the use of Japanese territorial waters for the conveyance of supplies which will probably be used against Japan's partner can be understood. But the argument that these supplies might also be used against Japan herself does not hold water, since Soviet Russia is unlikely to take action against Japan, unless the latter takes action first. The Soviets are preoccupied with their War in the west, and would take on other commitments only if absolutely forced to do so. They might consider stopping supplies provocation enough, since such a stoppage might be construed as an act of war. If this were to happen the Japanese will have brought the consequences upon their own heads. It is understood that the first tanker to reach eastern waters will be Russian, not American, and that the possibility of an attempt. to stop this vessel is being closely watch the Americans. Following a few days bel this first Russian tanker are believed to be three American ships, and their movements will probably depend upon what action, if any, Is taken Over the first ship. Neither the Soviets nor the United States are blufüng over this matter, which is in itself a small thing but which has the possibility of igniting a very big fire, hether it does so will depend upon the Japanese and upon them only. There are signs that a curb has been placed upon some of the extremist elements in Japan. There has been a noticeable absence of official statements from Tokyo by has coincided with also thought to be of Nazi influence. to prevail the fe: m only be throughout the whole of the Far East. But it is not believed that such a thing will happen. Caution and commonsense must be reinstated.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.