The Archive · 1883

THE SITUATION

Ar a critical juncture like the present, it may be interesting to enquire how far the Government of Peking is in possession of that centralization of power without which its situation must be one of peril. One is apt to be misled by the issue of Imperial Edicts, and to conclude that a given command, emanating from the Throne to a high officer, is really what it appears to be, But the fact is that very large number of such Edicts are issued in deference to the influence brought to bear upon the Central Government by the Viceroy to whom it is addressed, and that, so far from its being an antooratio order to such an officer to do, or to go, or to come, it is in reality nothing more than an act of permission granted to him todo what be himself wants to do, which it would be dangerous to withhold. Tu othe: for bali China is in the hands of the Viceroys that the Grand Council, the Six Boards, and the Tsang-li Yamen ai instances than is generally supposed, the exponents of, their will; and that the very greatest care is required to avoid any such serious differences with them as would load to a trial of strength between the opposing parties. Wo see something here resembling, in practice though not in theory, the iden of a Constitutional Mouarchy. Th Emperor is not, and probably never has been, an autocrat pure and simple his power is less, actually, than that of the Emperor of Russia; even the Grand Council, which may be termed a body representing the Imperial Prerogative, sways that prerogative only with the utmost caution. The Jocks upon any alienation of soil during the minority of an Emperor as evidence of liza-majesty on the part of his respon. The burden borne by the high Ministers of State is there. fore by no menus a light one; for if a foot of the Emperor's inheritance be filched by any foreign Power while ho is atill a child, the names of the Gre Councillors who permitted it will go down to future generations as guilty of the t breach of trast. This fact weighs heavily on their minds, no doubt, and here they naturally receive mach valuable support from the Em. press Regent, a woman of tenacity and determination. But for good or for ill, the Central Government is greatly in the hands of its Provincial representatives, and has to abide in a large mengure by what they dictate. What influence this position of affairs may have upon the question now distracting the Connoils at Peking opens up at once an enguiry into the characters of the most prominent statesmon of the country, and the clue here furnished is too valaable fo bp lost sight of, There can be no doubt that, to judge by surface evidence, what is called the War Party seems be in the ascendant. Promineut in its ranks is Ts'@n Yii-ying, Viceroy of the Yun-kuei Provinces. This man, who has been called the Skobeleff of China, is 8 good specimen of the fire-outing class, and is bent on giv to the first French soldier who crosses the frontier committed to his care. Tso Tsung-tang, a bitter Conservative as well know, integrity of the Liang Ki spirit which animates his colleague, Admiral P'éng, we have Intely hada good opportunity of judging. He pro. bably does not consider the form bar-parian' as exclusively applicable to the French, and yields to one in his desire to avenge the insults of the foreigner. It was in response—we might with justice say, in deference—to his Memorials that the Secret Decroo was issued which first proved to us the complicity of the Chinese Government with the Chief of the Block Flags, and which no longer left us in doubt as to the ascendancy of the War Party. Another man of note is Chang Chih-tang, whose Memorials at the time of the Russian imbroglio created so much stir, Chang is at present Governor of Shansi, and one of the best and most energetic officers in the whole of China, Bat annet look upon the foreigner otherwise than as a nuisance, and a nuisance which is likely to prove a standing monaco tothe country. Li Hung-chang, pencefal by disposition, is borne along by the clamour of Censors to take his part in the general stirring-up, Confirmation has reached us of the reported appointment of Li to the Liang Kuang provinces, the removal being arranged to take place in March; while Tseng Kuo.ch'tian, who is selected to replace Liin Chili, has already gone to Peking for audience. At the Capital itself we have Pfan Chao, the Prince of Ch'an, Chang Chih-wan, and Li Hang-tsno, all of them only too ready to be swayed by the influence of the Viceroys, yet dreading, probably, the resalts which may accrue from a too martial policy. Lastly, there is an French Crasade being preached in nearly all the central and southern provinces. The superiority of the French on the high seas is admitted; on dry land, however, the Chinese consider themselves a fair match for the invader, for recraits are pouring in by thous The regalare' are not to be depended upon; it is the volunteers who consti. tate the backbone of the Chinese forces, These persons are principally rowd desperadoes, and highwaymen who have deliberately placed themselves in a position of virtualoutlawry. The class to which they belong fought well and bravely during the Rebellion. They wore victorious in almost every battle against the insurgents, and held their ground when the regulars showed the soles of their feet in the wrong direc-tiou. It is these men who are now flocking to the standard raised by P'éug and who are relied upon bythe 1 officers to fight the battles They are undrilled, untrained, undisciplined, Their only vi a bulldog courage, and an i they have everything to gain and gto lose in the event of a war with France.

We abstain from theorising upon the facts thus hurriedly thrown to. gether. Such a task is at best a vain one where every mau bolds his own opinion, and every day changes the complexion of events, Our only object is to show that the Government of China rests practically, though not theoretically, in the hands of the Vice. roys; that Edicts are often' no more than' concessions where they appear commands; and that the influences of the most prominent of the high officers in China are now being thrown into a stream which makes for war. Whether that stream will flow on unimpeded is another matter altos gether. Nothing of very much importance is likely to be done between Ulus and the ently spring, and it is quite possible that when that time arrives the intervention of some friendly Power will have rendered useless the preparations made in the meantime. But one word in conclusion, Is the game worth the candle? Are not the Freich fighting for a chimera? Are trade-routes always payed with gold Does oom. merce always flow through channels opened up in, uninhabitable countries Will the conquest of Tonquin pay? We doubt it very much, But we do think an opportunity is now given to the West which has never ocourred before. Why should not the price of peace be such as will not only conduce to peace, but make peace: prosperous Why should not the Powers take ad" vantage of the position to insist on the ope! ing of the country by railroads, the consocaey of rivers and Larboure, and the establishment of a proper our. rency? A mint would be a greater blessing to us than the possibilities of Yunnan trade; a railway connecting the great centres in China would be a greater blessing to all than the opening of the Red River, That the question between Franco and China will be amicably settled we believe and hope let advantage be taken of the opportunity to obtain from the Chinese Go. vernment those concessions which we have so long desired, and which, like mercy, will prove a blessing alike to those who give and to those who take.

Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.

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