The Archive · 1883

Miscellaneous Articles

'THE POPULATION OF CHINA, Taw question of the probable population of China has frequently been discussed in these calamus. Between five and ten years ago the subject alfracted attention in Europe from time to time, and we then criticised the opinions that were expressed. Wo always held that the largo estimates which fraud most favour at howe weregrentexnggerations. The figures which suppose a populati of between three and four hundred millions are based upon the census of 1812, which gave 367 millions of inhabitants in the eighteen provinces. A census seventy years old would not be appealed to with regard to any other part of the world, even when supported by ealenlations as to the ratio of annual increase, and comparisons of the number of people per square mile, which other Jands have been able to sustain, Bat though we may refuse to accept the figures of a census taken in 1812, especially as there is great uncertainty a9 to the principle on which this uambering of the people was made, and as to the number of individuals computed to each family, it is often re-forred to as the nearest approach to an authority on the subject which is open to us. Returns wore said to have been obtained in 1842 which raised the number of inhabitants to A414 millions, and in 1852 when the population was stated at 450 millions. Bat these two returns are not accepted now-t-days, even by those who are readiest to believe Inrgely anything they may have read or been told about Chiva. There is a fine, rotund, thetorioal sound in speaking of four hundred millions of people, or one third of the human race; and these phrases are very usefal to those who employ them at meetings at home. Writers also, no doubt, find them effective, for Ki they reappear in places where more accuracy might be expected.

Dr. Wells Williams entered very elaborately into the question of the population of this Empire in The Mid. dle Kingdom, He argued strongly in favour of the highest estimates. Iudeed we are inclined to this that it is to him that the belief in China having over four Luudred millions of people is due. The earlier editions of his work were published before the outbreak of the Taiping rebellion, and, taking the census of 1812 us his starting point, he computed an annual increase of something like one per cent por annum. This calculation brought the numbers up to 450 millions at the time of his writing, and he gave that amount in his book, Dr. Williams, however, was careful to add, "but no, ove supposes there has been that increase, nor are there any data from which to make oven the least ites Of Uke present population of the shole empire." Since then the highest estimates of the population of China have ranged between three and four bun-dred millions. A correspondent stated the other day that a German estimate made the number of people la China four hundred and fifty millions, which is probably the reported returns of 1852, adopted by the German writer as the Intest. In the census of 1812 the people were reckoned by families, bat no uniform plan of ascertaining the average number of people in each family sas followed, an estimate being made by officials from their acquain tance with the circumstances in each district. Now, as there were probably over a hundred million families in the Empire it is evident that very slight mistakes in the reckoning or e3- timates made by the officials would enormously affect the final census. The country between which and Chiuaa comparison of their populations can best be made is India. The latter has no districts so thickly populated as those in the enlley and delta of the Yangteze, and, perhaps, the basin of the Canton river, but then she las no such wasted tracts as Shansi, Shensi, Yunnan, Kueichow and Kuangsi. In maw districts in Indin there are more inhabitants thea the land can support. Yet with an aren a hundred thousand square miles grantor than that of China, with good government, and without having suffered as mach as this country has from fummes and rebellion, the population of India is only slightly over two hundred and fifty millie With the evidence as to the condition of a largo part of China which we have obtained from the travels of Richthofen, Gill, Colquhoun, and others, we cannot believe that China Proper contains as many inhabitants as India, In order to do 80 we should be obliged to revive as true the statements of the number of people per square mile which is given with the Ohinese censuses, These gave 800 people to the square mile in kiangsu, 700 per square mile in An. hui, and 300 in Chekiang, a region of hills, The population of Kiangea near the large centres of trade may be 800 per square mile, but it is incredible that the whole province can give such a high average, Regarding the condition of parts of the Two Kiang at a very recent date, we can call H.E. 'I'so Tsung-tang as a witness. Ho describes the country in some districts as lying waste and showing few signs of recovery from the effects of the Taiping rebolliov, and the poorer classes as having become brigands and beggars. These couditious are incompatible with a high or even a moderate ratio of inhabitants to the square mile, Anhui, to the north of the Yangtezs, must always have been thinly peopled, for as we said formerly, n few wretched patches of rice in the bottoms were all the signs of cultivation to be seen for long distances, while the rolling plain of loess, admirably suited for grazing or ordinary cereal crops, was left neglected and useless. Such a country could never have had a "teeming" population, In a previous article in our pages we find an estimate of the population of China which we believe to have been as neatly true as any thing of the kind could be, It was 220 milliona of inhabitants to the Eighteen Provinces. That was written five years ago, and adding to it the population of Manchuria and Mongolia, and a fair annual increase, the numbers at the present time do not we should think exceed 250 mil-ions. The perpetuation of a large blander about the number of inhabit" ants in China can do no good to anyone. It may be hurtful to the Chinese, by giving them an exaggerated idea of their own consequence in the world, and it does harm to foreigners by continuing a mistake.

Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.

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