China for the year 1889 issued this morning by the Statistical Department of the Customs contains a valuable confirmation of our contention last week that the alleged regular opium drain of silver from China is a complete fallacy. The Statistical Secretary, Mr. McKean, begins his report by quoting the figures which represent the whole of China's trade with foreign countries, and which seem to support the argument of those who hold that there is such a drain.
They are Taels. Taels. 1888 1889 Exports " 92,401,067 96,947,832 Net Imports......124,782,893 110,884,355
"hose statistics of values," he says, "if unexplained, prove what is contrary to fact, namely, that China's foreign imports invariably outvalue her exports; whereas the exports not only pay for the imports, but suffice also to reimburse China's foreign creditors the principal and interest due on account of loans, and to yield besides a surplus, which enters China as silver bullion."
The true statement of figures, to get at the real balance of trade, requires that the system on which the valuation is made should be understood. The figures as above are misleading because, to put it roughly, the imports are gross values and the exports are net. values. Mr. McKean in his report, makes the necessary corrections, which we need not reproduce in detail, and the following table is the result 1 1889 Net Imports Taele. Taels. (value at moment: Of landing).........108,240,496 96,028,166 Exports (value at moment of shipment) 106,292,991 111,092,703 Thus in 1888 the imports exceeded the exports by nearly two million taels, and the net movements of gold and silver were an export of Tls. 1,700,000 of gold and Tls. 1,900,000 of silver (though it must be remembered that there is always a considerable import of the precious metals of which the foreign customs cannot take cognisance). But 1888 was an abnormal year: the imports of cottons, woollens and metals into Shanghai so outrun the demand that the stock of these goods here on the 31st December was larger by is. 2,600,000 than the stock on the Ist January, 1888; and owing to the floods in the south of China, there was an import into the Canton province alone of rice and paddy to the value of nine million taels. (We are dealing with Haikuan taels throughout.) In 1889 the exports outrun the imports by over fifteen million taels, and-the net movements of gold and silver were ay export of T's. 1,600,000 of gold, and an import of over six million taels of silver. Gold, we may remind some of our readers, is exclusively merchandise in China, The total imports into China in 1889 were less than those in 1888 by some fourteen million taels or eleven per cent. 'I'he great floods which restricted the purchasing power of the people are partly responsible for this, for the falling-off was very marked in opium and cotton goods; but the decline in the latter was partly due to the excess in the previous year. On the other hand there was also a very considerable decline in the import of grain into the Canton province, the amounts being Tis, 9,000,000 in 1888 and Tls. 5,500,000 in 1889. Mr. McKean picks out five "Sundries," Kerosene oil, Raw cotton, Coal, Matches, and Rice, for special remark: Kerosene oil, which he calls " an unqualified import of annually iucreasing quantity and benefit," but not all the Viceroys agree with him the benefit. Raw cotton is an import in the south of China and an export, to a very much larger extent, in the north; as long as Japan can take off, as it appears she can, all the surplus cotton that the north of China can produce, there is no reason why the south of China should not continue to supply its wants from India, As to Coal, Mr. McKean seems to us a little sanguine when he says that " the time is no longer far ahead when Chinese coal will, out of its matchless store, meet all and more than all the home demand." In a country whose annals go back four thousand years "not far ahead" does not mean the same as it does in Europe. As to Matches, as Japan has superseded Europe, so China 's expected to supersede Japan, As to Rice, any large import into China from abroad should be exceptional; calamities do not generally visit so many provinces at once as they did in 1888-89; usually the excess of one province can be relied on to supply the deficiency of another.
The page which Mr. McKean devotes to exports is chiefly directed to showing that if China losses her pre-eminence in silk and tea, she has other produce which she can send in their places. How tea has gone back we know too well; but silk recovered in 1889; while the export of raw cotton has risen from 69,000 piculs in 1887 to 504,000 piculs in 1889; wool, both sheep's and camels', from 4,500 piculs in 1880 to 102,000
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.