To the Elitor of the "Nonta-Carxa Dany News."
Si,—It may perhaps savour of presumption fo challenge the statement mate by your Tokio correspondent, under date the 27ch ultimo, as to the imminence of war between Russia and Japan. With his ceptional means of obtaining information on all matters respecting the insular eipire, he is evidently in a far better position to form an opinion on them than people who are away from the metropolis; there is, however, something in his announcement 80 irreconcilable with the attitude recently assumed by Japan that it wil! probably be construed, in certain quartes, as nothing more than an unnecessary note of alarm.
Te certainly seems incredible that any civilised Power should choose so unseasonable a moment as the present to precipitate a conflict that, under the circumstances, may not only seriously interfere with the early settlement of the agitation in North China, but even imperil the financial staility of the whole world. There is, in fact, no plausible reason to doubt the bona. fides of Japan, or even to think that she is anything but sincere in her desire to maintain the spirit of the Nissi-Rosen Protocol of 1898, whereby Japan and Rassia have engaged to act in conjunction with each other whenever circumstances necessitate the intervention of either Power in the affairs of Corea.
Tail to see, therefore, why the alleged Boxer invasion of Corea should serve a3 a pretext for the Japanese to free on a war with Russia by an unnecessary infringement of Treaty Rights. Were any plea required for the prosecution of hostilities last spring (which, at the time, were certainly not fraught with the dangers attendant on a war with a European Power at the present moment), Japan could easily have availed herself of the Masampho incident and commenced the struggle. That she did not do so is evidence of her good faith and of her desire for peace, for however well ju: fied Russia may have been in. securiny the coal station, there were sufficient elements in the concession incident, wherewith Japan (had she desired it) could have formed a pretext for at once declaring war. True, Russia was not then harassed as she now is by the presence of Chinese troops at her Siberian frontier, but there ix the contingency that any attempt to profit by difficulties connected with a crisis which has now become international, may involve Japan in a war with all the Allied Powers. The dispatching of troops to Corea without the assent of Russia would be a violation of Treaty Rights, the gravity of which at juncture not even the Liaotung peninsula grievance can extenuate. Whatever tenlency might have existed amongst some of the Powers to support such action on the part of Japan, were polities in rheic nonnat state, would be scouted at a anything making for fresh would be generally rosel A the progress of the Allied forces The fear of meeting with Fra Russian opposition would also be deterrent, and there moreover, the hood of the other Powers deci jointly prevent " war in the would affect their respective interests as largely as those of the bel ts, Should Japan pr refractory in the face of representations to that effect from the Powers, she tnay tind herself confronted by all the Allied forces. It is not impossible (for unexpected events seem to be the order of the day) that this contingency has already suggested itself to Japan and that would be glad of a pretence to enter an alliance with China and assist them in crashing the preponderance of foreigners in. the East. This is not impossible, but highly improbable, in view of the active part she has recently taken in subduing the Boxers and Imperial troops. From a logical point of view there are really no tenable grounds for predicting an immediate war between Russia and Japan. It mus: further be borne mind ti wither Japan nor Russia is prepared for a war of such a maznicude as that in which they would tind themselves were they to fight for Corea, The War Reserve in Japan does not exceed £5,000,000, and placing the amount of troops she could mobilise at say half a million men, which is the maximum figure, the daily mvintenance and equipment of her army would cost her at least £100,000, It will be soon at once that in the event of her immediate resources proving insufficient after some time, which is likely to be the case in a protracted contest, she would have to fall back on her reserve. The inference is clear, and the fully of now entering upon a war will not fail to impress itself on Japan.
Had her relations with the Muscovites been severed at any other time, she might have received pecuniary assistunee feo some European Power, but under the circumstances such help would be "ite out of the question, as she would practically he fighting in defiance of both Europe and America. All thi idered, it valid by logically prep of closing with " Russian enemy, abetted by France. Tf the experience 4 her troops in North China has actually inspired her with contempt! for the Eurspean troops, at whose side they have fought, she may find a rude awakening in the frst conflict which she would be rash en to attempt with a resolute Muss not to say, Franco-Russian army. T hold no brief for the Rassians, nor have L
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.