1th Februnry.
WE cannot wonder that political observers on the Continent of Europe have refused to believe that Russia and Japan would draw the sword. Japan has a formidable fleet: Russia's plans in the Far East would be dislocated and her moral and material losses enormous if she were crushed at sea by Japan, to say the least, a possible event: Russia was thought too astute to allow war to be forced upon her at an inconvenient time. Again, the immense weight of Russia lies heavy on continental Europe, the chance of her enmity has been for years a nightmare to the Cabinets of Austria and Prussia; for she has in Europe huge power of offence, and to invade her in turn has been to court destruction. Since Poter the Great defeated Charles XII at Pultowa in 1709, and the power of Sweden, her rival in the North, was destroyed, Russia has annexed territory from every one of her unfortunate neighbours, Sweden, Poland, Tarkey, Persia, Northern Manchuria, Khiva, and Turkestan have so suffered at her hands that she now rules a continuous territory covering one-seventh of the land surface of the globe. Would it not be madness for Japan to defy such an adversary and has not Japan great self-control? No wonder, then, that Continental political observers thought there would not be war.
But we know now that. war has not been averted; and we believe n spite of Russia's record in the past, and prestige in the present, that Japan may win, provided she can find the money to fight the necessary time.
Her armed firees are known to be well-organised; while one cannot but doubt whether the elaborate organisation necessary to the intricate operations of a combined land and sea war is possible with men who are as lax in their moral standard as the Russian ruling classes are reported to be. If Japan shows the same combination of daring and caution as she did against the Chinese fleet in 1894, she may well win command of the sea; she might cut the Siberian railway; and deal with the Russian force in Suuthern Man: churia at her leisure.
If Russia prove successful, as she has so long done with all her neigh-hours, the. war will take its place with other Russian wars of aggression and soon be forgotten; but should the God of Battles favour Japan, this war may be destined to become a decisive turning-point in history, and go down to posterity like Marathon, Chalons, or Tours, because an Oriental people will at last have stood: at bay to the Occident, because the wave of Western dominion over the East which began when Persia was defeated by Athens will have been checked. And it is curious to reflect that West and East have changed parts: Japan plays the part of Athens at Marathon and fights for free institutions, while Russia takes the Asiatic rule and 1 war always resulted in the victory fights for despotism and degradation. of the better moral ideal—as it no doubt does in the long run if sufficient masses of men and periods of time be regarded—who could doubt the result? But who will dare to pro-phossy which event would be better for the future of the world, the victory or defeat of Japan? Iv certainly seems that, if, as we were taught at school, the victory of Athens over Persia was a lasting benefit to the human race because it was the victory of free institutions over despotism, the same ought to be true of the brave people who have taken up the sword in the same cause.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.