The Archive · 1903

The Attitude of Russia

Meanwhile Japan has no intention what ever of fighting Russia single-handed on account of Manchuria, and, as she cannot look for assistance to her ally, Great Britain, it is safe to predict that, Whatever Russia. may do in the way of taxing over ferriter or massing troops in Manchuria, Japan will not do more than enter a protest. A deal of capital has been made by alarmists out of the statement. that Russia has something like a hundred thousand troops in and near Manchuria, and it is treated as if this, were something' new or extraordinary. AS a matter of fact, for years past Russia has had more than 2 hundred thousand troops in the immediate neighbourhood of Manchuria. These have gradually come more and more into evidence as Russia has carried out her policy of aggression in that. territory. At the time of the allied occupation of North China this number was greatly increased, and it must be remembered that when the troops of the other allies were withdrawn to their respective countries, Russia never withdrew hers far beyond the Great Wall which encircles the " eighteen provinces" of China proper. Except in the event of an actual attack on Japanese territory, there is only one cause for which Japan would fight Russia single-handed, and for that she would be prepared to, fight her to-morrow, That is rea. Such a war would not be entered on lightly by the Japanese. It would not be any foolhardy, vain-glorious enterprise as some would have us suppose. She would two vital reasons for taking the step. he first is that in Corea Japan has important and ever-increasing industrial and commercial interests to protect, and she has a large community of her own people established there as traders. The second reason is, that if Russia were to hold Corea Japan would have cause to fear that she herself would eventually become Russian. I am not dealing here with the chances that Japan would have in such a fight, but with the chances of such a fight taking place. In any case it is not likel~ to come about at present. Russia has not yet absorbed and propeiy di Manchuria, and until she has done so it is not to be supposed that she will complicate matters for herself by creating a situation which would undoubtedly jeopardize her position in Manchuria. "Then, again, it is to be presumed that were Russia to take steps to annex Corea, certain of the Western Powers would enter a very weighty protest against such a course. Such an incident may well come about some day, but it will not be yet. Nor can % be sprung on the world suddenly, for Japan has so intimate a knowledge of Russian methods and moves in North-Eastern Asia that there could be no such thing as an unforeseen annexation of Corea by Russia.

Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.

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