Peking, Jan. 26.
The discussion aroused by Mr. A. A. Joffe's departure from Peking a short time ago—ostensibly for the South—was as nothing compared with that which his reported intent to visit Japan has inspired in both Chinese and foreign circles here. There is of course a good deal of pure guess work on the part of idle gossips but there is also shrewd surmising being done by well informed persons. Everyone with a head on him has long since realized that the Manchurian situation is a mine of possible troubles, worthy of the attention of all the Powers, great and small. If Mr. Joffe goes to Japan now, his visit will be viewed in all circles in Peking as having a: direct bearing upon the Manchurian situation and the Chinese Eastern Railway question and will be watched with the most intense interest.. This view in Peking is prompted* by several important considerations.
In the first place, those who have been following translations from the Japanese press carefully have noted that' in the speeches and writings of many prominent Japanese the failure of the Dairen and Changchun. conferences has been loudly deplored. This is interpreted to mean thai Japanese officialdom is preparing the public mind for the announcement of. a third conference.
In the second place, Mr. Kawakami, once Japanese consul in Harbin, lately Japanese Minister to Poland, who speaks Russian as well as any Russian, was recently recalled to Tokio with orders to travel vid Moscow, where he is known to have spent some time. He has just passed through Harbin and by the time this article sees the light of day he will be in Japan.
In the third place, it is asserted in quarters usually responsible that Mr. Joffe did not solicit permission to go to Japan but received an invitation to visit that'country and convalesce, from no less a person than Mr. Kato.
In the fourth place it is well known that the Japanese are very anxious about their fishing rights off the North Siberian coast. In recent years these rights have been renewed annually by the Vladivostok Government. While Japan controlled policy in Vladivostok and held the mouth of the Amur, as well as other points on the Siberian littoral, these rights were easy enough to obtain and it would not have been a matter of very profound concern if they had been withheld. The -case is different now. The Siberian ports are held by the Reds and unless Japan is prepared to reverse her policy and reassumd an aggressive attitude towards Siberia, replace her garrisons and make) much play with gunboats, she will have to renew her fishing rights this season through negotiation with tha Red authorities. Everyone knows that the fish supply from the Kamchatka coast is vital to Japan. The sear son begins in the early, spring and the agreement will have to be renewed before March 1. These circumstances in themselves explain why Japan might now be eager to come to an understanding with the Soviet in the very near future and why the high civil officials in Japan might, be preparing the public mind for a third conference with the Soviet envoys. It would also seem to explain Mr. Kawakami's visit to Moscow.
If these surmises are anywhere near correct and if Mr. Joffe goes to Japan to confer with the™Japanese Government, it is obvious that the danger of a Red descent upon the Chinese Eastern Railway is not immediate. The Soviet, also has something to ask. It will not yield the fishing rights without a liberal quid pro quo. As soon as the Japanese say "fish," Mr, Joffe will say "Saghalien."" it is not the practice in diplomacy to ask for less than you want and Comrade Joffe is not backward - about expressing his desires, so it is more than likely that in addition to asking for the retrocession of the northern half of the island of Saghalien he will try to exact in return for the renewal of the fishing rights, and perhaps for other trading concessions, a free hand in the Chinese Eastern Railway zone.
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.