The Archive · 1911

A Diplomatic Passe

The situation has to be put thus clearly if any attempt is to be made to understand the diplomatic straggle which is at this moment proceeding in Constantinople. There are two +ets of Powers which might intervene together, and two Grest Powers which could intervone singly. One can eliminate the possibility that the Central German dual allisuce, Germany and Anstris, will on The resalt of any such open attempt would be A. for Itsly would at once march her troops over the Tyro-lose frontier. France woald bardly remain idle at Germany coalition with the third member of the decomposing Triple Alliance, and both Rassias and Great Britain would intervention by Anstrin ald be regerded by the Tarks with jost suspicion.

Ca the other hand, intervention by the Triple Entente would at the present javetare sim; ly drive Italy into the bands of Austria and Germany, stop the process of patrefaction in the Triple All ind probably produce Armagedhat way, for Germany would to strike at that most It remains that mediator sod enforce their terms.

MEDIATION WITH PROFITS, Germany can and, there is no farther doubt, does offer to Tarkey her detin' aid if the Turkish Government is ing to contract an alliance which in effect would replace Italy in the Dreibund by Turkey. It is an open secret that Ttaly hae long received from the Daal Alliance a assurance that in the event of an Anglo-German war she woold not be required to draw the sword in aid of the other allies, Aus ud Germany. taining a largo army for years to come inher new possession, as well as the till more argent necessity to keep open at all costs the sex-route to Tripol will make Ilaly dependent for some to come upon the Power that commands the Mediterranean, in fact upon the entente cordiale, "Neither Germany nor Austria could obtain the command of the Mediterranean against the French snd British fleets. It follows that for Germany the Italian alliance is of no value any more, She could exchange the Italian for the Torkish hance with profit since la an Anglo German war she might hope to send German-drilled Tarkish troops Napoleon's route into Egypt. There ttle doubt that it could be done and 8 still lasa doubt that it would be tried To addition Germany would control the situation at Constantinople and profits would xecrue"". German exps would take place towards the middle East. Of course, there is a1 series of other complications and difficulties which have to be borne in mind: one can ossly attempt to sam-9 the general view of the situa: 1s it cooms to be held in

Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.

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