Feb, 18.
Signs and. portenta of the approach of great events in the European theatres of war appear' in the news published by the hostile nations day by d In considering the information at our disposal it must be borne in mind that each side is endeavouring to outwit the other, in order to be the better able to strike a decisive blow. It is, however, impossible completely to conceal the operations in the various regions, and we are thus enabled broadly to gauge the situation at. the moment; anything beyond that can only be conjecture founded on incomplete knowledge. To take the Western front first. Here for the past fortnight the Germans have repeatedly attacked: the Allies have counter-attacked and made' new assaults elsewhere, but little is known of the actual one case, that of the German attempted offensive at Frise, we! have been told that the enemy's casualties were greater than at the battle of Loos, but the official communique speaks only of trench fighting and a violent counter-attack. Ten days ago a telegram from Amsterdam stated that the enemy continued to collect enormous stores of ammunition and many guns behind his front, but that he had no new infantry, while Reuter's special correspondent a day or' two later expressed the opinion that possibly the activity of the Germans could. be explained by their need to make more than a purely defensive reply to the constant harassing to which the Allies subject them. Germany hag tested our line in many|where the enemy twice un-"places and found it impregnable: successfully attacked the Russian {we outweigh the enemy in man- positions in "power and are at least his equal|Usechko.
The latter place was the region of in equipment. The utmost he can hope to do in the West is to {hold the Allies, but from Lord Kitchener's statement it is clear that we are completing euch preparations as will guarantee our ability to deliver a smashing blow when the opportunity presents itself.
Germany, therefore, cannot hope to find in France and Flanders superfluous troops for service elsewhere, while she is faced by a difficult situation in the Balkans and Asia Minor.
Salonika has been strongly fortified, French and British reinforcements are arriving constantly—and here it is well to notice thet eight divisions of the new army have simultaneously arrived in France—the French have crossed the Vardar, and the German dream of holding up a large Allied army in the Balkans while von Mackensen delivers a great stroke against Egypt is being dispelled. The boot has been put upon the other foot: the Allies will shortly be so powerful in the Balkans that the enemy In will need to employ vast armies to prevent them from driving him out of Servis. Besides diminishing the enemy's forces available for the Near East, the powerful Allied armies at Salonika will prevent the Germans from assisting the Austro-Hun garian armies in Galicia and Bukowina to any material extent—and they seem to need such hel" rather badly at the moment. Large German and Austrian forces were concentrated on the Rumanian frontier with the object of breaking down the neutrality of Rumania, lengthening the southern front and carrying out a flanking movement in Bessarabia. But by February 5 the offensive everywhere was on the side of the Russians except on the line of the Dniester, taken and the passage of the Dniester forced by our Ally, the Austro-Germans being compelled ta defend Czernowitz, the fall of which would probably determine Rumania, whose armies are now almost completely mobilized, to join the Entente. Thus has opened a new phase in the Balkans.
Meanwhile the Russian offend sive in the Caucasus, and particularly in Turkish Armenia, pro-grosses most satisfactorily, and has caused the Turks to transfer large forces from Gallipoli. With the capture, reported to-day, of the last of the forts at Erzeroum the Russian armies, aided by the reinforced British in Mesopotamia, will present a sufficiently serious menace to Turkey in Asia Minor, to cause her to send every available man to this region. Moreover, the presence of these allied armies, should upset any plans for an invasion of Egypt. Lord Kitchener's statement that adequate preparation has been made for the threatened invasion of Egypt indicates tha' reinforcements are on their way. Thus we may face the future in the south of Furope with equanimity, especially if the Russians are able to maintain their hold on Dvinsk, Riga and the line of the Dvina—for this is also a factor in the bid for the intervention of Rumania on our side, as well as having a more direct bearing on the result of the war. The Russians and Germans have constructed strong defences on this front and German naval operations in the Gulf of Riga this spring will be a logical sequence to the failure of their land forces last year. But already the German flank is threatened. Realizing the pressure that is being brought upon him, the enemy may make a desperate effort to secure a decision in the near future. When this at-
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Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.