The Archive · 1907

RUSSIA'S CHANCE IN MANCHURIA

August 8. the lives of individuals a great change of circumstances. ix not uncommonly followed by two! curiously contrasting phases mind. The first may he described loxs of personality, in which the imagination is valuely conscious without percept to begin among them second phase individuality awakes, suddenly and perhaps for no rea-von that ix very apparent, clearness of vision returns, confidence and the sense of order. As it is with individuals, so frequently—with nations: and, in particular, the signing at St. Petersburg on July 28 of the Russo-Japanese Treaty of Commerce and Fishing Convention xcems to indicate Russia in the Far Bast that second. phase of restored sense of propormn which sooner or later must follow upon the blind undisciplined strive ing after all things that began with the cessation of the war, At the first blush it may be argued that the Russo-Japanese Agreements will be found on publication to he at least as much in Japan's favour as in Russia's; otherwise they would not have been stipulated for under the Portsmouth Treaty. But! duty towards ourselves is first learnt by appreciating our duty towards our neighbours. In the pursuit of purely' political schemes Russia hitherto appears to have lost sight of the—social and commercial matters which are the ultimate justification and reason of all politics. Now the question is whether she will show herself capable of consolidating her power in the reduced but still ample and wealthy regions which she holds in Northern Manchuria and Eastern Siberia by the legitimate means of colonizing and organization. Towards this end the newly ratified Treaties are surely a decided step if, as we may hope, they mark the end of that restless. period, during which Russia (and to some extent Japan), regarding the Portsmouth Treaty as only a prolonged truce, was occupied chiefly with thoughts of preparation for the renewal of the conflict.

Leaving out of consideration, then, any indirect and unofficial influence which Russia may yet exert in Southern Manchuria, her immediate duties lie with the districts of the Sungari Plain about Harbin, and the Amur Valley terminating in Vladivostok, a har-hour which in spite of being icebound for four months of the twelve, has good possibilities both by reason of its own capacity, and of the district that it serves. Neither Harbin nor Vladivostok presents a very promi ut the present time. has lately been described in a letter which we reproduced ax deplorably: dirty and insanitary, and swarming with bad characters and thieves. At Vladivostok money is said to be almost inconceivably tight; the markets are so glutted with all kinds of produce that merchants are obliged to part with their goods at cost price or even below it; and at the same time the expenses of living are extravagantly. high, a fact which ought to indicate extraordinary prosperity, but when taken in conjunction with the circumstances alluded to, is simply additional proof of the general instability of things. In fact, on all sides there appears to be nothing but utter lack of organization, corruption and irresponsibility. On the other hand it may be argued that the present confusion is in reality the hest promise of future prosperity. The glutted condition of the Vladivostok markets would hardly have been brought about, unless speculators had had reasonable grounds for hastening, after the conclusion of peace, to flood the country with goods in the hope of ultimate return from her own resources; for it is an economic axiom that a country pays for its imports not with gold but with exports. Similarly the lawlessness of Harbin and Viadivostok~ is not altogether to be explained by the presence of horde of those undesirables that are left—in the wake of every campaign, but largely by the fact that immigrants attracted by hopes of gain are compelled in the disorder which at present blocks the paths of regular work to plunder for a living.

Behind all things, moreover, there are unmistakeable signs that the Russians believe in themselves. This alone is evidenced by the perpetual erection of imposing buildings both at Vladivostok and Harbin, by their cafes and restaurants, and the Europeanizing alt

Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.

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