August 20.
Tae Abstract of Statistics recently published by the Statistical Department of the I. M. Customs! show that the total value of Japan's trade with China stands at Hk. Tls. 96,808,886, while the total tonnage of her shipping stands at, Hk. Tls. 15,598, 213. The former figures represent in exports a decrease on those of 1906, the latter a considerable increase. The apparent, contradiction of these figures is partially explained by the addition made to Japanese shipping by the two new ports of AntungandTairen. Nevertheless the discrepancy, taken in conjunction with the decline in British imports and tonnage, suggests a closer examination of the prospects of Japanese Trade than we were able to make when recently reviewing the commerce of China as a whole. The first point that strikes us when we analyze the returns for 1907 is another contradiction, that though exports from Japan show a total diminution, they show also a steady all-round development. This second contradiction is explained by the fact that diminution is due to certain large and important items, such as Cotton Yarn, Cotton Goods, Sugar and Formosa Tea. Subsidiary exports such as Household Stores, Clothing, Machinery and Fittings, Glass and Glassware, Electrical Fittings, Hardware, Cement and others all show an increase. These are the commodities which, in the first place, have on the whole either remained steady, or have shown an upward tendency, over the period 1903-1907 and, in the second, are just of the kind necessary to bring Japan into line with older countries and with what are likely to be China's newer needs. They give rise to speculation, all important to British merchants, as to what is likely to. be the future position of Japan in the commerce of the Far East. There is, if we are not mistaken, a certain nervousness regarding this questi ness partly due to the sudden leap of Japanese exports after the conclusion of the Russo-Japanese War, partly due to a clear perception of the undoubted advantages with which Japan enters into the commercial arena.
Without claiming either the spirit of prophecy or expert knowledge, we would suggest one or two considerations which point to the conclusion that much of this nervousness—at any rate that part of it which goes so far as to conceive of a " Japanese peril", is exaggerated. There can, of course, be no two questions as to the moral certainty of a great extension of Japanese trade. In the first place, Japan is the principal recipient of a large number of Chinese commodities. namely Beancake, Beans, Hemp Fibres, Grasscloth, Pig and manufactured Irons, Silk Cocoons, Varnish and Cotton Seed. This alone argues a special indebtedness of each country to the other. In the second place, while she is the principal exporter to China of Coal, Matches and Match-making materials, Timber, Seaweed and Agar-Agar and other less important, articles, her subsidiary export list, as we began by pointing out, shows determined and so far successful development. In the third place certain changes are taking place in China which are bound to react favourably on Japan-
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.