The Archive · 1921

CHINA'S DAWN OR DOWNFALL?

July 18.

(Contributed)

Tue experience of the last decade in China raises a fundamental question whether this is the end of things or the beginning of a new era. We are often fobbed off with the word ''transition."' Now transition, like Mesopotamia, is a blessed word, but it is apt to beat about the bush. No doubt there are times of transition, but is it towards enlargement or decay?

That' excellent paper, the ""Spectator,'' once had an article entitled ''Sunrise and Sunset,'' pointing out that the conditions of twilight were the same in both phenomena and wondering why the effects were so different. It seems that shadow resting on an increasing light; proclaims itself in contrast to the light that rests on an increasing shadow. But what evidence have we whether these times of transition in China have the character of sunset or sunrise? Tt is indeed easier to discern the signs of the sky than the signs of the times.

There ave not a few reasons for thinking' that China is on the eve of dissolution, It has lived an unconscionable time already. having been a younger contemporary (we must suppose) of Egyptian and Assyrian powers which petered out' irretrievably long ago. Must not old age fall on a people at the last? The mirror of Empire in which its lessons are written plainest is the history of Rome. It seemed invincible and at its fall there was no other power on all its borders that could take its place. China is overshadowed by mightier empires: can it survive. seeing that Rome fell? In many respects the conditions of China _to-~ recall the symptoms of Rome's dissolution. First of all there is a similar waste of wealth through the corruption of the ruling classes with the consequent bankrupted of administration. The impoverishment of Rome, however, was not due to metropolitan weakness, as here, but, to the strain of financial burdens such as are paralyzing the peoples of Europe to-day. Another point in common is that in the latter days of the Empire the soldiery got out of hand in two directions. They were at the disposal of the

Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.

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