July 26.
"AuL action in war,'' wrote Clausewitz a century ago, "'is directed on probable, not on certain results." And he might have added that very often the probable proves most remote when actual events occur, and that apparently unrelated happenings do upset the whole trend of a whole campaign. Better proof of this we cannot have than in the struggle between the two Kuangs, where with drama~ tic rapidity the tide of fortune has changed so that now the Cantonese see themselves. distinctly in the ascendant. A fortnight ago the case was very different, for after winning a few minor successes the Cantonese found themselves severely defeated on the sea-coast in the vicinity of Pakhoi, and with Kuangsi in a position to annul all the progress made on the part of Canton by a bold and rapid stroke. There were important factors in 'Kuangsi's favour in carrying this out. Their army was experienced, while' the Cantonese was not, and one of the things which tells in a campaign is the nous of the hardened soldier. The Kuangsi command had anticipated with considerable accuracy the dispositions made by the Cantonese, and had a plan ready to counter them. Also, while Canton was giving out that the neighbouring provinces of Kiangsi, Hunan and Kueichow would march on its side, Kuangsi seems to have had a tolerably strong assurance that neutrality would be observed. This came from the fact that the intrigues of Peking for a reunion of the country had progressed not too indifferently. The principal factor militating against the Kuangsi command's carrying out its scheme was probably a shortage of munitions of war and treasure.
In bewailing the defeat of. the German army, Ludendorff laid stress on the uncertainties of warfare noted by Clausewitz, and mentioned that even to-day, with all the improvements in methods "f communication, the battlefield is still the home of misunderstanding. We do not know enough about the details of the operations undertaken on these southern battlefields to discuss this point in relation thereto, but we do know of uncertainties, failures and probable misunderstandings elsewhere. Looking
Text read from the printed page and cleaned; old type leaves the occasional error.